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Phosphorus Scarcity: The Neglected Issue in the Modeling of Future Food Security

Author

Listed:
  • Gorman, R.
  • Brockmeier, M.
  • Boysen-Urban, K.

Abstract

As 2050 drawers nearer, global food production faces growing demand for food, challenges from climate change and globalization. As ensuring food security for a growing global population will require innovative and sustainable solutions, research in this field endeavors to understand the landscape of food security in the coming decades. As such, global food security and computable general equilibrium modelling have partnered to help assess how these challenges will affect our ability to produce food. However, knowledge and research gaps remain. Thus, this paper innovatively highlights that food security analysis using computable general equilibrium modelling can be enhanced by filling one part of the mineral resource gap by including the critical element phosphorus. This paper provides a detailed literature review on current approaches in phosphorus modeling and their contributions to economic modeling and how current knowledge gaps can be bridged by including phosphorus into food security analyses using computable general equilibrium modeling.

Suggested Citation

  • Gorman, R. & Brockmeier, M. & Boysen-Urban, K., 2018. "Phosphorus Scarcity: The Neglected Issue in the Modeling of Future Food Security," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276011, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:276011
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.276011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald Sands & Hannah Förster & Carol Jones & Katja Schumacher, 2014. "Bio-electricity and land use in the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 719-730, April.
    2. Rami Rawashdeh & Philip Maxwell, 2011. "The evolution and prospects of the phosphate industry," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 24(1), pages 15-27, July.
    3. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty;

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