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Food Security for an Aging and Heavier Population

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe Vásquez

    (Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim, Norway
    Co-first authorship.)

  • Gibran Vita

    (Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim, Norway
    Co-first authorship.)

  • Daniel B. Müller

    (Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim, Norway)

Abstract

Changes in national and global food demand are commonly explained by population growth, dietary shifts, and food waste. Although nutrition sciences demonstrate that biophysical characteristics determine food requirements in individuals, and medical and demographic studies provide evidence for large shifts in height, weight, and age structure worldwide, the aggregated effects for food demand are poorly understood. Here, a type–cohort–time stock model is applied to analyze the combined effect of biophysical and demographic changes in the adult population of 186 countries between 1975–2014. The average global adult in 2014 was 14% heavier, 1.3% taller, 6.2% older, and had a 6.1% higher energy demand than the average adult in 1975. Across countries, individuals’ weight gains ranged between 6–33%, and energy needs increased between 0.9–16%. Noteworthy, some of the highest and lowest increases coexist within Africa and Asia, signaling the disparities between the countries of these regions. Globally, food energy increased by 129% during the studied period. Population growth contributed with 116%; weight and height gains accounted for 15%; meanwhile, the aging phenomenon counteracted the rise in energy needs by −2%. This net additional 13% demand corresponded to the needs of 286 million adults. Since the effect of biodemographic changes are cumulative, we can expect the observed inertia to extend into the future. This work shows that considering the evolving individual biophysical characteristics jointly with sociodemographic changes can contribute to more robust global resource and food security assessments. Commonly used static and homogenous caloric demand values per capita might lead to misrepresentations of actual needs. What previous analyses could have estimated as increased food availability, sufficiency, or surplus waste might actually be energy sequestered by the mass of the human lot. Based on the discovered trends, feeding nine billion people in 2050 will require significantly more total calories than feeding the same people today.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Vásquez & Gibran Vita & Daniel B. Müller, 2018. "Food Security for an Aging and Heavier Population," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:10:p:3683-:d:175610
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lianfeng Ma & Pomi Shahbaz & Shamsheer ul Haq & Ismet Boz, 2023. "Exploring the Moderating Role of Environmental Education in Promoting a Clean Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Pomi Shahbaz & Shamsheer ul Haq & Azhar Abbas & Abdus Samie & Ismet Boz & Salim Bagadeem & Ziyue Yu & Zhihui Li, 2022. "Food, Energy, and Water Nexus at Household Level: Do Sustainable Household Consumption Practices Promote Cleaner Environment?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Vita, Gibran & Lundström, Johan R. & Hertwich, Edgar G. & Quist, Jaco & Ivanova, Diana & Stadler, Konstantin & Wood, Richard, 2019. "The Environmental Impact of Green Consumption and Sufficiency Lifestyles Scenarios in Europe: Connecting Local Sustainability Visions to Global Consequences," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Lili Guo & Yuting Song & Shuang Zhao & Mengqian Tang & Yangli Guo & Mengying Su & Houjian Li, 2022. "Dynamic Linkage between Aging, Mechanizations and Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Production," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Vita, Gibran & Ivanova, Diana & Dumitru, Adina & Mira, Ricardo García & Carrus, Giuseppe & Stadler, Konstantin & Krause, Karen & Wood, Richard & Hertwich, Edgar, 2019. "Happier with less? Members of European environmental grassroots initiatives reconcile lower carbon footprints with higher life satisfaction and income increases," SocArXiv 3at5z, Center for Open Science.

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