IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/minecn/v36y2023i2d10.1007_s13563-021-00294-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating short-run (SR) and long-run (LR) demand elasticities of phosphate

Author

Listed:
  • Rami Rawashdeh

    (Al-Hussein Bin Talal University)

Abstract

Many empirical exercises estimating demand functions are concerned with estimating dynamic effects of price and income changes over time. Researchers are typically interested in getting estimates of both short-run (SR) and long-run (LR) elasticities, along with their standard errors. This study aimed to contribute with estimations of demand elasticities of world phosphate fertilisers. It answered the research question “How world demand of phosphate fertilisers is affected by its own price changes, cross price changes, income changes and other variables?”. Short and long run elasticities are calculated using an economic model in this paper. The findings indicate that global phosphate demand is price inelastic both in the short and long run. In addition, in both the short and long run, income elasticity, cross price elasticity, and cross yield elasticity are inelastic. Our modeling predicts that phosphate consumption for fertilisers will increase from 45.35 million tons in 2018 to around 59.16 million tons by 2028; which implies that an average annual growth rate of 2.7% of P 2 O 5 will be required every year by phosphate consumers and that additional production capacity may be needed in order to meet this future demand. The results suggest that phosphate prices are forecast to increase, as long as demand continues to rise and no new production facilities are built.

Suggested Citation

  • Rami Rawashdeh, 2023. "Estimating short-run (SR) and long-run (LR) demand elasticities of phosphate," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 239-253, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:36:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s13563-021-00294-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-021-00294-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13563-021-00294-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13563-021-00294-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Rawashdeh, Rami Al & Xavier-Oliveira, Emanuel & Maxwell, Philip, 2016. "The potash market and its future prospects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 154-163.
    3. Fishman, Ram & Kishore, Avinash & Rothler, Yoav & Ward, Patrick, 2016. "Can Information Help Reduce Imbalanced Application of Fertilizers in India? Experimental Evidence from Bihar," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235705, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Rivaldo A. B. Kpadonou & Bruno Barbier & Tom Owiyo & Fatima Denton & Franck Rutabingwa, 2019. "Manure and adoption of modern seeds in cereal‐based systems in West African drylands: linkages and (non)complementarities," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 41-55, February.
    5. Acheampong, Kwame & Dicks, Michael R., 2012. "Fertilizer Demand for Biofuel and Cereal crop Production in the United States," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119798, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 2020. "Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    8. Williamson, James M., 2010. "Does Information Matter? Assessing the Role of Information and Prices in the Nitrogen Fertilizer Management Decision," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 60892, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. John T. Cuddington & Leila Dagher, 2015. "Estimating Short and Long-Run Demand Elasticities: A Primer with Energy-Sector Applications," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(1), pages 185-210, January.
    10. Gunjal, Kisan R. & Roberts, Roland K. & Heady, Earl O., 1980. "Fertilizer Demand Functions for Five Crops in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 111-116, December.
    11. Ward, Patrick S. & Gupta, Shweta & Singh, Vartika & Ortega, David L. & Gautam, Shriniwas, 2020. "What is the intrinsic value of fertilizer? Experimental value elicitation and decomposition in the hill and terai regions of Nepal," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. André Croppenstedt & Mulat Demeke, 1996. "Determinants of adoption and levels of demand for fertilizer for cereal growing farmers in Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 1996-03, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Zvi Griliches, 1958. "The Demand for Fertilizer: An Economic Interpretation of a Technical Change," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 591-606.
    14. Rami Rawashdeh & Philip Maxwell, 2011. "The evolution and prospects of the phosphate industry," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 24(1), pages 15-27, July.
    15. Fernandez, Viviana, 2018. "Mineral commodity consumption and intensity of use re-assessed," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Ignacio Guzman, Juan & Nishiyama, Takashi & Tilton, John E., 2005. "Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 21-27, March.
    17. Pei, Fanyu & Tilton, John E., 1999. "Consumer preferences, technological change, and the short-run income elasticity of metal demand," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 87-109, June.
    18. al Rawashdeh, Rami & Maxwell, Philip, 2014. "Analysing the world potash industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 143-151.
    19. Heckenmüller, Markus & Narita, Daiju & Klepper, Gernot, 2014. "Global availability of phosphorus and its implications for global food supply: An economic overview," Kiel Working Papers 1897, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Maganga, Assa & Mehare, Abure & Ngoma, Kisa & Magombo, Elizabeth & Gondwe, Paul, 2011. "Determinants of smallholder farmers’ demand for purchased inputs in Lilongwe District, Malawi: evidence from Mitundu extension planning area," MPRA Paper 34590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mark Denbaly & Harry Vroomen, 1993. "Dynamic Fertilizer Nutrient Demands for Corn: A Cointegrated and Error-Correcting System," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 203-209.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    23. Emmanuel Skoufias & Vincenzo Di Maro & Teresa Gonzalez-Cossio & Sonia Rodriguez Ramirez, 2011. "Food quality, calories and household income," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4331-4342.
    24. Robert T. Jensen & Nolan H. Miller, 2011. "Do Consumer Price Subsidies Really Improve Nutrition?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1205-1223, November.
    25. Gunjal, Kisan R. & Roberts, Roland K. & Heady, Earl O., 1980. "Fertilizer Demand Functions For Five Crops In The United States," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-6, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denbaly, Mark & Vroomen, Harry, 1991. "Elasticities of Fertilizer Demands for Corn in the Short and the Long Run: A Cointegrated and Error-Correcting System," Staff Reports 278575, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    3. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    4. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    5. Osamah M. Al-Khazali, 2003. "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(3), pages 287-314, September.
    6. Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde & Djuric, Ivan & Glauben, Thomas, 2019. "Food security and the functioning of wheat markets in Eurasia: a comparative price transmission analysis for the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 733-752.
    7. Usman Qamar Sheikh & Muhammad Zafar Iqbal & Hafiz Khalil Ahmad, 2016. "The Impact of Foreign Aid, Energy Production and Human Capital on Income Inequality: A Case Study of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, March.
    8. Sohngen, Brent & King, Kevin W. & Howard, Gregory & Newton, John & Forster, D. Lynn, 2015. "Nutrient prices and concentrations in Midwestern agricultural watersheds," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 141-149.
    9. de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.
    10. Stevenson, Simon, 2000. "A Long-Term Analysis of Regional Housing Markets and Inflation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 24-39, March.
    11. Chibueze, E. Nnaji & Jude, O. Chukwu & Nnaji Moses, 2013. "Does Domestic Energy Consumption Contribute to Exports? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 297-306.
    12. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    13. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.
    14. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    15. Ogunleye, Eric Kehinde, 2008. "Natural resource abundance in Nigeria: From dependence to development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 168-174, September.
    16. Dmitrieva, D. & Ilinova, A. & Kraslawski, A., 2017. "Strategic management of the potash industry in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 81-89.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    18. Olena STRYZHAK & Ramazan SAYAR & Yılmaz Onur ARI, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, GDP and tourism: an ARDL-ECM cointegration study on Ukraine," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 14(1), pages 85-113, May.
    19. John Baffes & Alain Kabundi & Peter Nagle, 2022. "The role of income and substitution in commodity demand [Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 498-522.
    20. Rawashdeh, Rami Al & Xavier-Oliveira, Emanuel & Maxwell, Philip, 2016. "The potash market and its future prospects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 154-163.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:36:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s13563-021-00294-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.