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A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tietê–Paraná Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion

Author

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  • Marcelo Ramos Martins
  • Marco Aurélio Pestana
  • Enrique Andrés López Droguett

Abstract

The market share of Tietê–Paraná inland waterway (TPIW) in the transport matrix of the São Paulo state, Brazil, is currently only 0.6%, but it is expected to increase to 6% over the next 20 years. In this scenario, to identify and explore potential undesired events a risk assessment is necessary. Part of this involves assigning the probability of occurrence of events, which usually is accomplished by a frequentist approach. However, in many cases, this approach is not possible due to unavailable or nonrepresentative data. This is the case of the TPIW that even though an expressive accident history is available, a frequentist approach is not suitable due to differences between current operational conditions and those met in the past. Therefore, a subjective assessment is an option as allows for working independently of the historical data, thus delivering more reliable results. In this context, this article proposes a methodology for assessing the probability of occurrence of undesired events based on expert opinion combined with fuzzy analysis. This methodology defines a criterion to weighting the experts and, using the fuzzy logic, evaluates the similarities among the experts’ beliefs to be used in the aggregation process before the defuzzification that quantifies the probability of occurrence of the events based on the experts’ opinion. Moreover, the proposed methodology is applied to the real case of the TPIW and the results obtained from the elicited experts are compared with a frequentist approach evidencing the impact on the results when considering different interpretations of the probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Ramos Martins & Marco Aurélio Pestana & Enrique Andrés López Droguett, 2020. "A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tietê–Paraná Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1279-1301, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:6:p:1279-1301
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13473
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mazzuchi, Thomas A. & Linzey, William G. & Bruning, Armin, 2008. "A paired comparison experiment for gathering expert judgment for an aircraft wiring risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 722-731.
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    3. Marcelo Ramos Martins & Marcos Coelho Maturana, 2010. "Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 674-698, April.
    4. Suyi Li & Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu, 2012. "An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 496-512, March.
    5. Cooke, Roger M. & Goossens, Louis L.H.J., 2008. "TU Delft expert judgment data base," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 657-674.
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