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Application of Bayesian Belief networks to the human reliability analysis of an oil tanker operation focusing on collision accidents

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  • Martins, Marcelo Ramos
  • Maturana, Marcos Coelho

Abstract

During the last three decades, several techniques have been developed for the quantitative study of human reliability. In the 1980s, techniques were developed to model systems by means of binary trees, which did not allow for the representation of the context in which human actions occur. Thus, these techniques cannot model the representation of individuals, their interrelationships, and the dynamics of a system. These issues make the improvement of methods for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) a pressing need. To eliminate or at least attenuate these limitations, some authors have proposed modeling systems using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs). The application of these tools is expected to address many of the deficiencies in current approaches to modeling human actions with binary trees.

Suggested Citation

  • Martins, Marcelo Ramos & Maturana, Marcos Coelho, 2013. "Application of Bayesian Belief networks to the human reliability analysis of an oil tanker operation focusing on collision accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 89-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:110:y:2013:i:c:p:89-109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.09.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Trucco, P. & Cagno, E. & Ruggeri, F. & Grande, O., 2008. "A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: A case study in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 845-856.
    2. Andrea Bigano & Paul Sheehan, 2006. "Assessing the Risk of Oil Spills in the Mediterranean: the Case of the Route from the Black Sea to Italy," Working Papers 2006.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Vanem, Erik & Endresen, Øyvind & Skjong, Rolf, 2008. "Cost-effectiveness criteria for marine oil spill preventive measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(9), pages 1354-1368.
    4. Vanem, Erik & Antão, Pedro & Østvik, Ivan & de Comas, Francisco Del Castillo, 2008. "Analysing the risk of LNG carrier operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(9), pages 1328-1344.
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