IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v35y2015i7p1296-1316.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis Using Evidence Theory and AHP

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoyan Su
  • Sankaran Mahadevan
  • Peida Xu
  • Yong Deng

Abstract

Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important issue. Many of the dependence assessment methods in HRA rely heavily on the expert's opinion, thus are subjective and may sometimes cause inconsistency. In this article, we propose a computational model based on the Dempster‐Shafer evidence theory (DSET) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to handle dependence in HRA. First, dependence influencing factors among human tasks are identified and the weights of the factors are determined by experts using the AHP method. Second, judgment on each factor is given by the analyst referring to anchors and linguistic labels. Third, the judgments are represented as basic belief assignments (BBAs) and are integrated into a fused BBA by weighted average combination in DSET. Finally, the CHEP is calculated based on the fused BBA. The proposed model can deal with ambiguity and the degree of confidence in the judgments, and is able to reduce the subjectivity and improve the consistency in the evaluation process.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoyan Su & Sankaran Mahadevan & Peida Xu & Yong Deng, 2015. "Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis Using Evidence Theory and AHP," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1296-1316, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:7:p:1296-1316
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12347
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12347
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12347?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marzio Marseguerra & Enrico Zio & Massimo Librizzi, 2007. "Human Reliability Analysis by Fuzzy “CREAM”," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 137-154, February.
    2. Marcelo Ramos Martins & Marcos Coelho Maturana, 2010. "Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 674-698, April.
    3. Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2013. "A Bayesian approach to treat expert-elicited probabilities in human reliability analysis model construction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 52-64.
    4. Suyi Li & Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu, 2012. "An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 496-512, March.
    5. Luca Podofillini & Vinh Dang & Enrico Zio & Piero Baraldi & Massimo Librizzi, 2010. "Using Expert Models in Human Reliability Analysis—A Dependence Assessment Method Based on Fuzzy Logic," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(8), pages 1277-1297, August.
    6. Wei, Daijun & Deng, Xinyang & Zhang, Xiaoge & Deng, Yong & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2013. "Identifying influential nodes in weighted networks based on evidence theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(10), pages 2564-2575.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bing Wu & Xinping Yan & Yang Wang & C. Guedes Soares, 2017. "An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1936-1957, October.
    2. Paglioni, Vincent P. & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "Dependency definitions for quantitative human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Wen, Tao & Gao, Qiuya & Chen, Yu-wang & Cheong, Kang Hao, 2022. "Exploring the vulnerability of transportation networks by entropy: A case study of Asia–Europe maritime transportation network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Lei Chen & Ling Diao & Jun Sang, 2019. "A novel weighted evidence combination rule based on improved entropy function with a diagnosis application," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 15(1), pages 15501477188, January.
    5. Muhammad Mohsin & Yin Hengbin & Zhang Luyao & Li Rui & Qian Chong & Ana Mehak, 2022. "An Application of Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis for Risk Prioritization and Management: A Case Study of the Fisheries Sector in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Shang Gao & Yong Deng, 2019. "An evidential evaluation of nuclear safeguards," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 15(12), pages 15501477198, December.
    7. Deyun Zhou & Yongchuan Tang & Wen Jiang, 2017. "An Improved Belief Entropy and Its Application in Decision-Making," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-15, March.
    8. Arigi, Awwal Mohammed & Park, Gayoung & Kim, Jonghyun, 2020. "Dependency analysis method for human failure events in multi-unit probabilistic safety assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Rong Yuan & Debiao Meng & Haiqing Li, 2016. "Multidisciplinary reliability design optimization using an enhanced saddlepoint approximation in the framework of sequential optimization and reliability analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(6), pages 570-578, December.
    10. Zhang, Xiaoge & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Lau, Nathan & Weinger, Matthew B., 2020. "Multi-source information fusion to assess control room operator performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    11. Xu, Li & Wang, Jin & Ou, Yanxia & Fu, Yang & Bian, Xiaoyan, 2022. "A novel decision-making system for selecting offshore wind turbines with PCA and D numbers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    12. Cui, Huizi & Zhou, Lingge & Li, Yan & Kang, Bingyi, 2022. "Belief entropy-of-entropy and its application in the cardiac interbeat interval time series analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Yongchuan Tang & Deyun Zhou & Wen Jiang, 2016. "A New Fuzzy-Evidential Controller for Stabilization of the Planar Inverted Pendulum System," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    14. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    15. Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Haijun Yu & Xiaoyan Bai, 2020. "Flood Risk Assessment and Regionalization from Past and Future Perspectives at Basin Scale," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1399-1417, July.
    16. Ana Mehak & Yongtong Mu & Muhammad Mohsin & Xing-Can Zhang, 2023. "MCDM-Based Ranking and Prioritization of Fisheries’ Risks: A Case Study of Sindh, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Yutong Chen & Yongchuan Tang, 2021. "An Improved Approach of Incomplete Information Fusion and Its Application in Sensor Data-Based Fault Diagnosis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, June.
    18. Divya Choudhary & Ravi Shankar & Alok Choudhary, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 858-883, April.
    19. Shengwen Yin & Keliang Jin & Yu Bai & Wei Zhou & Zhonggang Wang, 2023. "Solution-Space-Reduction-Based Evidence Theory Method for Stiffness Evaluation of Air Springs with Epistemic Uncertainty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, March.
    20. Sarat Sivaprasad & Cameron A. MacKenzie, 2018. "The Hurwicz Decision Rule’s Relationship to Decision Making with the Triangle and Beta Distributions and Exponential Utility," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(3), pages 139-153, September.
    21. Kusi-Sarpong, Simonov & Orji, Ifeyinwa Juliet & Gupta, Himanshu & Kunc, Martin, 2021. "Risks associated with the implementation of big data analytics in sustainable supply chains," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    22. Saad Muslet Albogami & Mohd Khairol Anuar Bin Mohd Ariffin & Eris Elianddy Bin Supeni & Kamarul Arifin Ahmad, 2021. "A New Hybrid AHP and Dempster—Shafer Theory of Evidence Method for Project Risk Assessment Problem," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(24), pages 1-30, December.
    23. Jin-Ling Yan & Yong-Jie Xue & Muhammad Mohsin, 2022. "Accessing Occupational Health Risks Posed by Fishermen Based on Fuzzy AHP and IPA Methods: Management and Performance Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-20, October.
    24. Ji, Changcheng & Gao, Fei & Liu, Wenjiang, 2024. "Dependence assessment in human reliability analysis based on cloud model and best-worst method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zio, Enrico & Yuan, Chengwei & Wang, Taorui & Jiang, Jianjun, 2022. "A Bayesian belief network framework for nuclear power plant human reliability analysis accounting for dependencies among performance shaping factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    3. Yamin Huang & P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder, 2020. "Time‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 24-42, January.
    4. Marcelo Ramos Martins & Marco Aurélio Pestana & Enrique Andrés López Droguett, 2020. "A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tietê–Paraná Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1279-1301, June.
    5. Su, Xiaoyan & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Xu, Peida & Deng, Yong, 2014. "Inclusion of task dependence in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 41-55.
    6. Gino J. Lim & Jaeyoung Cho & Selim Bora & Taofeek Biobaku & Hamid Parsaei, 2018. "Models and computational algorithms for maritime risk analysis: a review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 765-786, December.
    7. Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Ruponen, Pekka & Tompuri, Markus & Gil, Mateusz & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "Accident susceptibility index for a passenger ship-a framework and case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    8. Ung, S.T., 2021. "Navigation Risk estimation using a modified Bayesian Network modeling-a case study in Taiwan," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Ekanem, Nsimah & Mosleh, Ali & Shen, Song-Hua & Ramos, Marilia, 2024. "Phoenix–A model-based human reliability analysis methodology: Data sources and quantitative analysis procedure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    10. Wei, Bo & Liu, Jie & Wei, Daijun & Gao, Cai & Deng, Yong, 2015. "Weighted k-shell decomposition for complex networks based on potential edge weights," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 420(C), pages 277-283.
    11. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    12. Morais, Caroline & Estrada-Lugo, Hector Diego & Tolo, Silvia & Jacques, Tiago & Moura, Raphael & Beer, Michael & Patelli, Edoardo, 2022. "Robust data-driven human reliability analysis using credal networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    13. Lu, Xi & Mo, Hongming & Deng, Yong, 2015. "An evidential opinion dynamics model based on heterogeneous social influential power," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 98-107.
    14. Sheikhahmadi, Amir & Nematbakhsh, Mohammad Ali & Shokrollahi, Arman, 2015. "Improving detection of influential nodes in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 833-845.
    15. Carine Dominguez-Péry & Lakshmi Narasimha Raju Vuddaraju & Isabelle Corbett-Etchevers & Rana Tassabehji, 2021. "Reducing maritime accidents in ships by tackling human error: a bibliometric review and research agenda," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-32, December.
    16. Hiba Baroud & Jose E. Ramirez‐Marquez & Kash Barker & Claudio M. Rocco, 2014. "Stochastic Measures of Network Resilience: Applications to Waterway Commodity Flows," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(7), pages 1317-1335, July.
    17. Musharraf, Mashrura & Bradbury-Squires, David & Khan, Faisal & Veitch, Brian & MacKinnon, Scott & Imtiaz, Syed, 2014. "A virtual experimental technique for data collection for a Bayesian network approach to human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-8.
    18. Gao, Cai & Yan, Chao & Zhang, Zili & Hu, Yong & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Deng, Yong, 2014. "An amoeboid algorithm for solving linear transportation problem," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 179-186.
    19. Chen, Yahong & Li, Jinlin & Huang, He & Ran, Lun & Hu, Yusheng, 2017. "Encouraging information sharing to boost the name-your-own-price auction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 108-117.
    20. Cai, Mingyou & Zhang, Jinfen & Zhang, Di & Yuan, Xiaoli & Soares, C. Guedes, 2021. "Collision risk analysis on ferry ships in Jiangsu Section of the Yangtze River based on AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:7:p:1296-1316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.