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A paired comparison experiment for gathering expert judgment for an aircraft wiring risk assessment

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  • Mazzuchi, Thomas A.
  • Linzey, William G.
  • Bruning, Armin

Abstract

Wire failure in aircraft can be attributed to several factors and the assessment of the risk of wire failure is becoming an increasingly important task. This paper will discuss the results of an actual experiment to use the paired-comparison technique for expert judgment to develop a relationship for the probability of wire failure as a function of influencing factors in an aircraft environment. The reasons for using this technique are two-fold. First, the failure probability depends on many variables including wire gauge, vibration, environmental condition, etc. In addition, the wire failure data are sparse and fitting these data to a complex failure function is a nontrivial task that may involve a host of assumptions that may not be provable.

Suggested Citation

  • Mazzuchi, Thomas A. & Linzey, William G. & Bruning, Armin, 2008. "A paired comparison experiment for gathering expert judgment for an aircraft wiring risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 722-731.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:5:p:722-731
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.011
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    Cited by:

    1. A Zuashkiani & D Banjevic & A K S Jardine, 2009. "Estimating parameters of proportional hazards model based on expert knowledge and statistical data," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1621-1636, December.
    2. Marcelo Ramos Martins & Marco Aurélio Pestana & Enrique Andrés López Droguett, 2020. "A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tietê–Paraná Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1279-1301, June.
    3. Sharma, Pankaj & Kulkarni, Makarand S & Yadav, Vikas, 2017. "A simulation based optimization approach for spare parts forecasting and selective maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 274-289.

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