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Time‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention

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  • Yamin Huang
  • P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder

Abstract

We propose an innovative time‐varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships’ positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability. We then measure the TCR as the time‐dependent percentage of overlap between these two sets. Several scenarios are presented to illustrate how the proposed measurement identifies the time‐varying risk levels, and how the approach can be used as an intuitively understandable tool for collision avoidance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yamin Huang & P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder, 2020. "Time‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 24-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:1:p:24-42
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13293
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xin, Xuri & Liu, Kezhong & Loughney, Sean & Wang, Jin & Li, Huanhuan & Ekere, Nduka & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Multi-scale collision risk estimation for maritime traffic in complex port waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    2. Li, Mengxia & Mou, Junmin & Chen, Linying & He, Yixiong & Huang, Yamin, 2021. "A rule-aware time-varying conflict risk measure for MASS considering maritime practice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. Li, Mengxia & Mou, Junmin & Chen, Pengfei & Rong, Hao & Chen, Linying & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2022. "Towards real-time ship collision risk analysis: An improved R-TCR model considering target ship motion uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Xin, Xuri & Liu, Kezhong & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Jinfen & Wu, Xiaolie, 2021. "A probabilistic risk approach for the collision detection of multi-ships under spatiotemporal movement uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

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