IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v38y2018i7p1444-1454.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Which Fire to Extinguish First? A Risk‐Informed Approach to Emergency Response in Oil Terminals

Author

Listed:
  • Nima Khakzad

Abstract

The performance of fire protection measures plays a key role in the prevention and mitigation of fire escalation (fire domino effect) in process plants. In addition to passive and active safety measures, the intervention of firefighting teams can have a great impact on fire propagation. In the present study, we have demonstrated an application of dynamic Bayesian network to modeling and safety assessment of fire domino effect in oil terminals while considering the effect of safety measures in place. The results of the developed dynamic Bayesian network—prior and posterior probabilities—have been combined with information theory, in the form of mutual information, to identify optimal firefighting strategies, especially when the number of fire trucks is not sufficient to handle all the vessels in danger.

Suggested Citation

  • Nima Khakzad, 2018. "Which Fire to Extinguish First? A Risk‐Informed Approach to Emergency Response in Oil Terminals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1444-1454, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:7:p:1444-1454
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12946
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12946
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12946?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Necci, Amos & Argenti, Francesca & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 30-46.
    2. Kohda, Takehisa & Cui, Weimin, 2007. "Risk-based reconfiguration of safety monitoring system using dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1716-1723.
    3. Montani, S. & Portinale, L. & Bobbio, A. & Codetta-Raiteri, D., 2008. "Radyban: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(7), pages 922-932.
    4. Landucci, Gabriele & Argenti, Francesca & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 30-43.
    5. Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio & Reniers, Genserik & Pasman, Hans, 2018. "Cost-effective fire protection of chemical plants against domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 412-421.
    6. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2016. "Application of event sequence diagram to evaluate emergency response actions during fire-induced domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 202-209.
    7. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Weiliang Qiao & Huiwen Luo & Peilong He, 2021. "Human Factor Risk Modeling for Shipyard Operation by Mapping Fuzzy Fault Tree into Bayesian Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-31, December.
    2. Gregory Levitin & Liudong Xing & Yuanshun Dai, 2020. "Mission Abort Policy for Systems with Observable States of Standby Components," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1900-1912, October.
    3. Dimaio, F. & Scapinello, O. & Zio, E. & Ciarapica, C. & Cincotta, S. & Crivellari, A. & Decarli, L. & Larosa, L., 2021. "Accounting for Safety Barriers Degradation in the Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Systems by Multistate Bayesian Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "Optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects: Methodologies based on dynamic influence diagram and mathematical programming," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    5. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A goal programming approach to multi-objective optimization of firefighting strategies in the event of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    6. Nima Khakzad, 2018. "A Graph Theoretic Approach to Optimal Firefighting in Oil Terminals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "Optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects: Methodologies based on dynamic influence diagram and mathematical programming," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    2. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A goal programming approach to multi-objective optimization of firefighting strategies in the event of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    3. Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2017. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to performance assessment of fire protection systems during domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 232-247.
    4. Ovidi, Federica & Zhang, Laobing & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "Agent-based model and simulation of mitigated domino scenarios in chemical tank farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    7. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    8. Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    9. Amin, Md. Tanjin & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Cozzani, Valerio & Khan, Faisal, 2024. "Improved pool fire-initiated domino effect assessment in atmospheric tank farms using structural response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    10. Nima Khakzad & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers, 2017. "Application of Graph Theory to Cost‐Effective Fire Protection of Chemical Plants During Domino Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(9), pages 1652-1667, September.
    11. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Argenti, Francesca & Cozzani, Valerio, 2017. "Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 37-53.
    12. Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio & Reniers, Genserik & Pasman, Hans, 2018. "Cost-effective fire protection of chemical plants against domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 412-421.
    13. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    14. Weiliang Qiao & Enze Huang & Hongtongyang Guo & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma, 2022. "Barriers Involved in the Safety Management Systems: A Systematic Review of Literature," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-35, August.
    15. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.
    16. Li, Mei & Liu, Zixian & Li, Xiaopeng & Liu, Yiliu, 2019. "Dynamic risk assessment in healthcare based on Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 327-334.
    17. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    18. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2016. "Application of event sequence diagram to evaluate emergency response actions during fire-induced domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 202-209.
    19. Jianfeng Zhou & Genserik Reniers, 2020. "Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix‐Based Simulation Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1913-1927, October.
    20. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Probabilistic Petri-net addition enabling decision making depending on situational change: The case of emergency response to fuel tank farm fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:7:p:1444-1454. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.