IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2021i1p297-d712822.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Human Factor Risk Modeling for Shipyard Operation by Mapping Fuzzy Fault Tree into Bayesian Network

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Liu

    (School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

  • Xiaoxue Ma

    (Public Administration and Humanities College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

  • Weiliang Qiao

    (Marine Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

  • Huiwen Luo

    (College of Arts and Sciences, New York University Shanghai, Shanghai 200120, China)

  • Peilong He

    (Public Administration and Humanities College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

Abstract

The operational activities conducted in a shipyard are exposed to high risk associated with human factors. To investigate human factors involved in shipyard operational accidents, a double-nested model was proposed in the present study. The modified human factor analysis classification system (HFACS) was applied to identify the human factors involved in the accidents, the results of which were then converted into diverse components of a fault tree and, as a result, a single-level nested model was established. For the development of a double-nested model, the structured fault tree was mapped into a Bayesian network (BN), which can be simulated with the obtained prior probabilities of parent nodes and the conditional probability table by fuzzy theory and expert elicitation. Finally, the developed BN model is simulated for various scenarios to analyze the identified human factors by means of structural analysis, path dependencies and sensitivity analysis. The general interpretation of these analysis verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology to evaluate the human factor risks involved in operational accidents in a shipyard.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Weiliang Qiao & Huiwen Luo & Peilong He, 2021. "Human Factor Risk Modeling for Shipyard Operation by Mapping Fuzzy Fault Tree into Bayesian Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-31, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2021:i:1:p:297-:d:712822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/1/297/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/1/297/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kahraman, Cengiz & Ertay, Tijen & Buyukozkan, Gulcin, 2006. "A fuzzy optimization model for QFD planning process using analytic network approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 390-411, June.
    2. Crispim, José & Fernandes, Jorge & Rego, Nazaré, 2020. "Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. He, Ye & Kuai, Nian-Sheng & Deng, Li-Min & He, Xiong-Yuan, 2021. "A method for assessing Human Error Probability through physiological and psychological factors tests based on CREAM and its applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Chang, Da-Yong, 1996. "Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 649-655, December.
    5. Abrishami, Shokoufeh & Khakzad, Nima & Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud & van Gelder, Pieter, 2020. "BN-SLIM: A Bayesian Network methodology for human reliability assessment based on Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Weiliang Qiao & Yu Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Yang Liu, 2020. "Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 957-980, May.
    7. Nima Khakzad, 2018. "Which Fire to Extinguish First? A Risk‐Informed Approach to Emergency Response in Oil Terminals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1444-1454, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Ying-Ming & Luo, Ying & Hua, Zhongsheng, 2008. "On the extent analysis method for fuzzy AHP and its applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 735-747, April.
    2. Pınar Kaya Samut, 2017. "Integrated FANP-f-MIGP model for supplier selection in the renewable energy sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 427-450, May.
    3. Chunsheng Wu & Gaohuan Liu & Chong Huang & Qingsheng Liu & Xudong Guan, 2018. "Ecological Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fuzzy Analytical Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process in Yellow River Delta," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Harsha Cheemakurthy & Karl Garme, 2022. "Fuzzy AHP-Based Design Performance Index for Evaluation of Ferries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Ozalp Vayvay & Yigit Ozcan & Maria Manuela Cruz-Cunha, 2012. "ERP consultant selection problem using AHP, fuzzy AHP and ANP: A case study in Turkey," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 106-117.
    6. Pacheco, Ricardo Rodrigues & Fernandes, Elton & Domingos, Eduardo Marques, 2014. "Airport airside safety index," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 86-92.
    7. Cumhur Güngöroğlu & İrem İsmailoğlu & Bekir Kapukaya & Orkan Özcan & Mustafa Yanalak & Nebiye Musaoğlu, 2024. "Comparison between Post-Fire Analysis and Pre-Fire Risk Assessment According to Various Geospatial Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Nilashi, Mehrbakhsh & Ahmadi, Hossein & Ahani, Ali & Ravangard, Ramin & Ibrahim, Othman bin, 2016. "Determining the importance of Hospital Information System adoption factors using Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (ANP)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 244-264.
    9. Toni Lupo & Seyyed Ali Delbari, 2018. "A knowledge-based exploratory framework to study quality of Italian mobile telecommunication services," Telecommunication Systems: Modelling, Analysis, Design and Management, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 129-144, May.
    10. Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader & Tarek Zayed & Hassan El Fathali & Ghasan Alfalah & Abobakr Al-Sakkaf & Osama Moselhi, 2023. "An Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for the Assessment of Public Private Partnerships in Transportation Projects," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-41, August.
    11. Jianghong Feng, 2022. "An integrated multi-criteria decision-making method for hazardous waste disposal site selection," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8039-8070, June.
    12. Pasura Aungkulanon & Walailak Atthirawong & Woranat Sangmanee & Pongchanun Luangpaiboon, 2023. "Fuzzy Techniques and Adjusted Mixture Design-Based Scenario Analysis in the CLMV (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam) Subregion for Multi-Criteria Decision Making in the Apparel Industry," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-32, November.
    13. Asadayoobi, N. & Taghipour, S. & Jaber, M.Y., 2022. "Predicting human reliability based on probabilistic mission completion time using Bayesian Network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    14. Weiliang Qiao & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & He Lan, 2021. "Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    15. Chatterjee, Kajal & Bandyopadhyay, Abhirup & Ghosh, Amitava & Kar, Samarjit, 2015. "Assessment of environmental factors causing wetland degradation, using Fuzzy Analytic Network Process: A case study on Keoladeo National Park, India," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 316(C), pages 1-13.
    16. Chen-Hui Chou & Gin-Shuh Liang & Hung-Chung Chang, 2013. "A fuzzy AHP approach based on the concept of possibility extent," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-14, January.
    17. Benyou Jia & Slobodan P. Simonovic & Pingan Zhong & Zhongbo Yu, 2016. "A Multi-Objective Best Compromise Decision Model for Real-Time Flood Mitigation Operations of Multi-Reservoir System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3363-3387, August.
    18. Li, Yan-Lai & Tang, Jia-Fu & Chin, Kwai-Sang & Jiang, Yu-Shi & Han, Yi & Pu, Yun, 2011. "Estimating the final priority ratings of engineering characteristics in mature-period product improvement by MDBA and AHP," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 575-586, June.
    19. Pasura Aungkulanon & Walailak Atthirawong & Pongchanun Luangpaiboon & Wirachchaya Chanpuypetch, 2024. "Navigating Supply Chain Resilience: A Hybrid Approach to Agri-Food Supplier Selection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-42, May.
    20. Juan Carlos Martín & Veronika Rudchenko & María-Victoria Sánchez-Rebull, 2020. "The Role of Nationality and Hotel Class on Guests’ Satisfaction. A Fuzzy-TOPSIS Approach Applied in Saint Petersburg," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2021:i:1:p:297-:d:712822. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.