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Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix‐Based Simulation Approach

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  • Jianfeng Zhou
  • Genserik Reniers

Abstract

Major industrial accidents occurring at so‐called major hazard installations may cause domino accidents which are among the most destructive industrial accidents existing at present. As there may be many hazard installations in an area, a primary accident scenario may potentially propagate from one installation to another, and correlations exist in probability calculations of domino effects. In addition, during the propagation of a domino effect, accidents of diverse types may occur, some of them having a synergistic effect, while others do not. These characteristics make the analytical formulation of domino accidents very complex. In this work, a simple matrix‐based modeling approach for domino effect analysis is proposed. Matrices can be used to represent the mutual influences of different escalation vectors between installations. On this basis, an analysis approach for accident propagation as well as a simulation‐based algorithm for probability calculation of accidents and accident levels is provided. The applicability and flexibility of this approach is discussed while applying it to estimate domino probabilities in a case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianfeng Zhou & Genserik Reniers, 2020. "Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix‐Based Simulation Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1913-1927, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:10:p:1913-1927
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13544
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nima Khakzad & Faisal Khan & Paul Amyotte & Valerio Cozzani, 2013. "Domino Effect Analysis Using Bayesian Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 292-306, February.
    2. Landucci, Gabriele & Argenti, Francesca & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 30-43.
    3. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2016. "Application of event sequence diagram to evaluate emergency response actions during fire-induced domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 202-209.
    4. Alileche, Nassim & Cozzani, Valerio & Reniers, Genserik & Estel, Lionel, 2015. "Thresholds for domino effects and safety distances in the process industry: A review of approaches and regulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 74-84.
    5. Salzano, Ernesto & Cozzani, Valerio, 2005. "The analysis of domino accidents triggered by vapor cloud explosions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 271-284.
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