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Human Reliability Analysis by Fuzzy “CREAM”

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  • Marzio Marseguerra
  • Enrico Zio
  • Massimo Librizzi

Abstract

This article proposes a systematic procedure for computing probabilities of operator action failure in the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). The starting point for the quantification is a previously introduced fuzzy version of the CREAM paradigm that is here further extended to account for: (1) the ambiguity in the qualification of the conditions under which the action is performed (common performance conditions, CPCs) and (2) the fact that the effects of such conditions on human performance reliability may not all be equal.

Suggested Citation

  • Marzio Marseguerra & Enrico Zio & Massimo Librizzi, 2007. "Human Reliability Analysis by Fuzzy “CREAM”," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 137-154, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:1:p:137-154
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00865.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    2. Kim, Man Cheol & Seong, Poong Hyun & Hollnagel, Erik, 2006. "A probabilistic approach for determining the control mode in CREAM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 191-199.
    3. Konstandinidou, Myrto & Nivolianitou, Zoe & Kiranoudis, Chris & Markatos, Nikolaos, 2006. "A fuzzy modeling application of CREAM methodology for human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(6), pages 706-716.
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    1. Bing Wu & Xinping Yan & Yang Wang & C. Guedes Soares, 2017. "An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1936-1957, October.
    2. Xiaoyan Su & Sankaran Mahadevan & Peida Xu & Yong Deng, 2015. "Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis Using Evidence Theory and AHP," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1296-1316, July.
    3. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    5. Chongfu Huang & Da Ruan, 2008. "Fuzzy Risks and an Updating Algorithm with New Observations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 681-694, June.
    6. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zio, Enrico & Yuan, Chengwei & Wang, Taorui & Jiang, Jianjun, 2022. "A Bayesian belief network framework for nuclear power plant human reliability analysis accounting for dependencies among performance shaping factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

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