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Travel Risks in a Time of Terror: Judgments and Choices

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  • Baruch Fischhoff
  • Wändi Bruine De Bruin
  • Wendy Perrin
  • Julie Downs

Abstract

Shortly after the 2002 terrorist attacks in Bali, readers of Condé Nast Traveler magazine were surveyed regarding their views on the risks of travel to various destinations. Their risk estimates were highest for Israel, and lowest for Canada. Estimates for the different destinations correlated positively with (1) one another, (2) concern over aspects of travel that can make one feel at risk (e.g., sticking out as an American), (3) worries about other travel problems (e.g., contracting an infectious disease), and (4) attitudes toward risk. Respondents' willingness to travel to a destination was predicted well by whether their estimate of its risk was above or below their general threshold for the acceptability of travel risks. Overall, the responses suggest orderly choices, based on highly uncertain judgments of risks. Worry played a significant role in these choices, even after controlling for cognitive considerations, thereby supporting the recently proposed “risk as feelings” hypothesis.(1) Thus, even among people who have generally consistent and defensible beliefs, emotions may affect choices. These results emerged with people selected for their interest in and experience with the decision domain (travel), but challenged to incorporate a new concern (terror).

Suggested Citation

  • Baruch Fischhoff & Wändi Bruine De Bruin & Wendy Perrin & Julie Downs, 2004. "Travel Risks in a Time of Terror: Judgments and Choices," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(5), pages 1301-1309, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:24:y:2004:i:5:p:1301-1309
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00527.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baruch Fischhoff & Don MacGregor, 1983. "Judged Lethality: How Much People Seem to Know Depends Upon How They Are Asked," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(4), pages 229-236, December.
    2. Steven Woloshin & Lisa M. Schwartz & Stephanie Byram & Baruch Fischhoff & H. Gilbert Welch, 2000. "A New Scale for Assessing Perceptions of Chance," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 20(3), pages 298-307, July.
    3. Fischhoff, Baruch, 1994. "What forecasts (seem to) mean," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 387-403, November.
    4. Jonathan Baron & John C. Hershey & Howard Kunreuther, 2000. "Determinants of Priority for Risk Reduction: The Role of Worry," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(4), pages 413-428, August.
    5. Lennart Sjöberg, 1998. "Worry and Risk Perception," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 85-93, February.
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    2. Xiao-Fei Xie & Eric Stone & Rui Zheng & Ruo-Gu Zhang, 2011. "The 'Typhoon Eye Effect’: determinants of distress during the SARS epidemic," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 1091-1107, October.
    3. Fynnwin Prager & Garrett Ryan Beeler Asay & Bumsoo Lee & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2011. "Exploring Reductions in London Underground Passenger Journeys Following the July 2005 Bombings," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(5), pages 773-786, May.
    4. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad & Jaweria Haleem, 2021. "The Governance and Tourism: A Case of Developing Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(3), pages 199-213, September.
    5. Shoshana Shiloh & Gülbanu Güvenç & Dilek Önkal, 2007. "Cognitive and Emotional Representations of Terror Attacks: A Cross‐Cultural Exploration," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 397-409, April.
    6. Monika Małgorzata Wojcieszak-Zbierska & Anna Jęczmyk & Jan Zawadka & Jarosław Uglis, 2020. "Agritourism in the Era of the Coronavirus (COVID-19): A Rapid Assessment from Poland," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Tamara Gajić & Ivana Blešić & Marko D. Petrović & Milan M. Radovanović & Filip Đoković & Dunja Demirović Bajrami & Sanja Kovačić & Ivana Jošanov Vrgović & Tatyana N. Tretyakova & Julia A. Syromiatniko, 2023. "Stereotypes and Prejudices as (Non) Attractors for Willingness to Revisit Tourist-Spatial Hotspots in Serbia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Anja Göritz & David Weiss, 2014. "Behavioral and emotional responses to escalating terrorism threat," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 13(2), pages 285-295, November.
    9. Hajibaba, Homa & Gretzel, Ulrike & Leisch, Friedrich & Dolnicar, Sara, 2015. "Crisis-resistant tourists," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 46-60.
    10. Jennifer E. C. Lee & Louise Lemyre, 2009. "A Social‐Cognitive Perspective of Terrorism Risk Perception and Individual Response in Canada," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1265-1280, September.
    11. Osland Gregory E. & Mackoy Robert & McCormick Marleen, 2017. "Perceptions of personal risk in tourists’ destination choices: nature tours in Mexico," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 38-50, May.
    12. Gallardo-Vázquez Dolores & Hernández-Ponce Oscar Ernesto & Valdez-Juárez Luis Enrique, 2019. "Impact factors for the development of a competitive and sustainable tourist destination. Case: Southern Sonora Region," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 9(2), pages 3-14, December.

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