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Flu Shots, Mammograms, and the Perception of Probabilities

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  • Carman, Katherine Grace

    (Tilburg University)

  • Kooreman, Peter

    (Tilburg University)

Abstract

We study individuals' decisions to decline or accept preventive health care interventions such as flu shots and mammograms. In particular, we analyze the role of perceptions of the effectiveness of the intervention, by eliciting individuals' subjective probabilities of sickness and survival, with and without the interventions. Respondents appear to be aware of some of the qualitative relationships between risk factors and probabilities. However, on average they have very poor perceptions of the absolute probability levels as reported in the epidemiological literature. Perceptions are less accurate if a respondent is female and has no college degree. Perceived probabilities significantly affect the subsequent take-up rate of flu shots and mammograms.

Suggested Citation

  • Carman, Katherine Grace & Kooreman, Peter, 2011. "Flu Shots, Mammograms, and the Perception of Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 5739, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5739
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    Cited by:

    1. BOUCKAERT, Nicolas & SCHOKKAERT, Erik, 2013. "Differing types of medical prevention appeal to different individuals," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Majo, M.C., 2010. "A microeconometric analysis of health care utilization in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 1cf5fd2f-8146-4ef8-8eb5-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Caroline Rudisill, 2013. "How do we handle new health risks? Risk perception, optimism, and behaviors regarding the H1N1 virus," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 959-980, September.
    4. Matthias Sutter & Martin G. Kocher & Daniela Glätzle-Rützler & Stefan T. Trautmann, 2013. "Impatience and Uncertainty: Experimental Decisions Predict Adolescents' Field Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 510-531, February.
    5. Joachim Winter & Amelie Wuppermann, 2014. "Do They Know What Is At Risk? Health Risk Perception Among The Obese," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 564-585, May.
    6. Stefan T. Trautmann & Gijs Kuilen, 2015. "Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race among Truth Serums," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 2116-2135, December.
    7. Binswanger, Johannes & Salm, Martin, 2013. "Does Everyone Use Probabilities? Intuitive and Rational Decisions about Stockholding," IZA Discussion Papers 7265, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Yaniv Hanoch & Jonathan J. Rolison & Alexandra M. Freund, 2018. "Does Medical Risk Perception and Risk Taking Change with Age?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 917-928, May.
    9. Robert S. Goldfarb, 2013. "Shortage, Shortage, Who's Got the Shortage?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 277-297, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    probability perceptions; preventive health care;

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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