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Judged Lethality: How Much People Seem to Know Depends Upon How They Are Asked

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  • Baruch Fischhoff
  • Don MacGregor

Abstract

Four formally equivalent response modes were used to elicit laypeople's beliefs regarding the lethality of various potential causes of death. Results showed that respondents had an articulated core of beliefs about lethality that yielded similar orderings of maladies by lethality regardless of the response mode used. Moreover, this subjective ordering was fairly similar to that revealed by public health statistics. However, the absolute estimates of lethality produced by the different response modes varied enormously. Depending upon the mode used, respondents were seen to greatly overestimate or greatly underestimate lethality. The implications of these discrepancies for public education and risk analysis are explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Baruch Fischhoff & Don MacGregor, 1983. "Judged Lethality: How Much People Seem to Know Depends Upon How They Are Asked," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(4), pages 229-236, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:3:y:1983:i:4:p:229-236
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb01391.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Baruch Fischhoff & Wändi Bruine De Bruin & Wendy Perrin & Julie Downs, 2004. "Travel Risks in a Time of Terror: Judgments and Choices," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(5), pages 1301-1309, October.
    2. Harald Ibrekk & M. Granger Morgan, 1987. "Graphical Communication of Uncertain Quantities to Nontechnical People," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 519-529, December.
    3. Danièle Hermand & Serge Karsenty & Yves Py & Laurent Guillet & Bruno Chauvin & Arnaud Simeone & María Teresa & Muñoz Sastre & Etienne Mullet, 2003. "Risk Target: An Interactive Context Factor in Risk Perception," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 821-828, August.

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