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Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post-succession performance

Author

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  • Rick Audas

    (Faculty of Medicine, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada A1B 3V6)

  • John Goddard

    (School of Business and Regional Development, University of Wales, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK)

  • W. Glenn Rowe

    (Paul MacPherson Chair in Strategic Leadership, Richard Ivey School of Business, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 3K7)

Abstract

Match-level National Hockey League (NHL) data are used to identify factors likely to trigger the departure of a team's coach, and to measure the short-term impact on subsequent match results. There is a statistically significant link between individual match results and the job departure hazard for up to 15 games prior to the point of departure. The hazard depends on the team's current standing within its conference relative to a pre-season forecast, recent performance in the Stanley Cup, the coach's age and previous employment with his present team as a player. After controlling for a mean-reversion effect, teams that changed their coach within-season are found to perform worse subsequently than those that did not, but the negative effect is short-lived. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Rick Audas & John Goddard & W. Glenn Rowe, 2006. "Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post-succession performance," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-306.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:27:y:2006:i:4:p:293-306
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.1259
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Wangrow, David B. & Schepker, Donald J. & Barker, Vincent L., 2018. "Power, performance, and expectations in the dismissal of NBA coaches: A survival analysis study," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 333-346.
    3. Stefano D'Addona & Axel Kind, 2011. "Forced Manager Turnovers In English Soccer Leagues: A Long-Term Perspective," Working Papers 1011, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2011.
    4. Stefano d’Addona & Axel Kind, 2014. "Forced Manager Turnovers in English Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 150-179, April.
    5. Frick, Bernd & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Prinz, Joachim, 2010. "Analysing head coach dismissals in the German "Bundesliga" with a mixed logit approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 151-159, January.
    6. Yvon Rocaboy & Marek Pavlik, 2020. "Performance Expectations of Professional Sport Teams and In-Season Head Coach Dismissals—Evidence from the English and French Men’s Football First Divisions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Maria De Paola & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2012. "The Effects of Managerial Turnover," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(2), pages 152-168, April.
    8. Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "The Performance Effects Of Wise And Unwise Managerial Dismissals," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 186-198, January.
    9. Humphreys, Brad R. & Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2016. "Performance expectations and the tenure of head coaches: Evidence from NCAA football," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 482-492.
    10. Andres Giraldo & Juan Mendoza & Andrés Rosas & Dayana Tellez, 2013. "Managerial Turnover: Coach Dismissals and Team Performance in Colombia," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-23, August.
    11. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2015. "Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues," MPRA Paper 66414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2019. "Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer leagues," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 239-246.
    13. Stefan Wagner, 2010. "Managerial succession and organizational performance-evidence from the German Soccer League," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 415-430.
    14. De Paola, Maria & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2008. "The Effects of Managerial Turnover: Evidence from Coach Dismissals in Italian Soccer Teams," MPRA Paper 11030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Humphreys, Brad & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2011. "CEO Turnover: More Evidence on the Role of Performance Expectations," Working Papers 2011-14, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    16. Brian Goff & Dennis Wilson & David Zimmer, 2019. "The effect of management changes on winning in professional sports: Analysis using a dynamic lag adjustment model," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 982-992, December.
    17. Yvon Rocaboy & Marek Pavlik, 2019. "Performance expectations of professional sport teams and in-season head coach dismissals: Evidence from the English Premier League and the French Ligue 1 using Monte Carlo simulation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2019-01, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.

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