IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tut/cremwp/2019-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Performance expectations of professional sport teams and in-season head coach dismissals: Evidence from the English Premier League and the French Ligue 1 using Monte Carlo simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Yvon Rocaboy

    (Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM - UMR 6211, F-35000 Rennes, France & Condorcet Center for Political Economy)

  • Marek Pavlik

    (Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Why and when are head coaches of professional football clubs dismissed, and what is the effect of coach dismissal on team performance? In this paper, we propose a new method for assessing the performance expectations of professional sport teams using Monte Carlo simulation. We investigate those questions by applying our method to the English Premier league and the French Ligue 1 football teams over the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 seasons. We found that coach dismissal is the result of a drop in the average expected performance compared with the performance expectations at the beginning of the season. We also show that dismissing a coach may enhance performance only if the team under-performed before the dismissal. There is no obstacle to using the same method for professional teams in other sports. The method is easily reproducible and does not require much information in order to be applied. Our findings confirm and extend previous studies, and do so by using generally accessible data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvon Rocaboy & Marek Pavlik, 2019. "Performance expectations of professional sport teams and in-season head coach dismissals: Evidence from the English Premier League and the French Ligue 1 using Monte Carlo simulation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2019-01, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    • Handle: RePEc:tut:cremwp:2019-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ged.univ-rennes1.fr/nuxeo/site/esupversions/5509d6c7-85db-401f-8940-854bf0939b7a?inline
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Holmes, 2011. "Win or Go Home: Why College Football Coaches Get Fired," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(2), pages 157-178, April.
    2. Rick Audas & John Goddard & W. Glenn Rowe, 2006. "Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post-succession performance," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-306.
    3. Alex Bryson & Babatunde Buraimo & Alex Farnell & Rob Simmons, 2021. "Time To Go? Head Coach Quits and Dismissals in Professional Football," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 81-105, February.
    4. Flores, Ramón & Forrest, David & Tena, J.D., 2012. "Decision taking under pressure: Evidence on football manager dismissals in Argentina and their consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 653-662.
    5. Frick, Bernd & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Prinz, Joachim, 2010. "Analysing head coach dismissals in the German "Bundesliga" with a mixed logit approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 151-159, January.
    6. W. David Allen & Clint Chadwick, 2012. "Performance, Expectations, and Managerial Dismissal," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 337-363, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yvon Rocaboy & Marek Pavlik, 2020. "Performance Expectations of Professional Sport Teams and In-Season Head Coach Dismissals—Evidence from the English and French Men’s Football First Divisions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Wangrow, David B. & Schepker, Donald J. & Barker, Vincent L., 2018. "Power, performance, and expectations in the dismissal of NBA coaches: A survival analysis study," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 333-346.
    3. Humphreys, Brad R. & Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2016. "Performance expectations and the tenure of head coaches: Evidence from NCAA football," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 482-492.
    4. Claudio Detotto & Dimitri Paolini & J. D. Tena, 2018. "Do managerial skills matter? An analysis of the impact of managerial features on performance for Italian football," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(2), pages 270-282, February.
    5. Kaori Naritaa & J .D. Tenaa & Claudio Detottoc, 2020. "What Makes the Ideal Profile of a New Manager in Times of Adversity? Evidence from Italian Serie A," Working Papers 202031, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    6. Janina Kleinknecht & Daniel Würtenberger, 2022. "Information effects of managerial turnover on effort and performance: Evidence from the German Bundesliga," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 791-812, April.
    7. Michael A. Roach, 2022. "Career concerns and personnel investment in the Major League Baseball player draft," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 413-426, January.
    8. Marte Bentzen & Göran Kenttä & Pierre-Nicolas Lemyre, 2020. "Elite Football Coaches Experiences and Sensemaking about Being Fired: An Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-13, July.
    9. Hwang, Joon Ho & Kim, Min-Su, 2015. "Misunderstanding of the binomial distribution, market inefficiency, and learning behavior: Evidence from an exotic sports betting market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 333-344.
    10. Humphreys, Brad & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2011. "CEO Turnover: More Evidence on the Role of Performance Expectations," Working Papers 2011-14, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    11. Stefano d’Addona & Axel Kind, 2014. "Forced Manager Turnovers in English Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 150-179, April.
    12. Kaori Narita & J.D. Tena & Babatunde Buraimo, 2022. "Causal and Consequences of Multiple Dismissals: Evidence from Italian Football League," Working Papers 202226, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    13. Salaga, Steven & Juravich, Matthew, 2020. "National Football League head coach race, performance, retention, and dismissal," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 978-991.
    14. Frick, Bernd & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Prinz, Joachim, 2010. "Analysing head coach dismissals in the German "Bundesliga" with a mixed logit approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 151-159, January.
    15. Daniel Weimar & Katrin Scharfenkamp, 2019. "Effort reduction of employer‐to‐employer changers: Empirical evidence from football," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 277-291, April.
    16. A. James Wynne & Chandrashekar Challa & John Palesis & Bernie Farkas, 2015. "A Conceptual Model: Impact Of Usage Of Social Media Tools To Enhance Project Management Success," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(2), pages 55-72.
    17. Butler, David & Butler, Robert & Farnell, Alex & Simmons, Robert, 2024. "COVID-19 infections and short-run worker performance: Evidence from European football," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(2), pages 750-763.
    18. Stefano D'Addona & Axel Kind, 2011. "Forced Manager Turnovers In English Soccer Leagues: A Long-Term Perspective," Working Papers 1011, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2011.
    19. Torben Tiedemann & Tammo Francksen & Uwe Latacz-Lohmann, 2011. "Assessing the performance of German Bundesliga football players: a non-parametric metafrontier approach," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 19(4), pages 571-587, December.
    20. Lefgren, Lars J. & Platt, Brennan & Price, Joseph & Higbee, Samuel, 2019. "Outcome based accountability: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 121-137.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    coach dismissal; Monte Carlo simulation; team performance; payrolls; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tut:cremwp:2019-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: GERMAIN Lucie (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/crmrefr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.