IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v8y2020i4p82-d425325.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Performance Expectations of Professional Sport Teams and In-Season Head Coach Dismissals—Evidence from the English and French Men’s Football First Divisions

Author

Listed:
  • Yvon Rocaboy

    (Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM-UMR 6211, Condorcet Center for Political Economy, F-35000 Rennes, France)

  • Marek Pavlik

    (Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, 60177 Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The goals of this paper are first to identify why professional football clubs replace their head coach and, second, to investigate the effect of coach dismissal on team performance. To do that, we propose a new method for assessing the performance expectations of professional sport teams using Monte Carlo simulation. We apply our method to the English Premier league and the French Ligue 1 football teams over the 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 seasons. We find that coach dismissal is the result of a drop in the average expected performance compared with the performance expectations at the beginning of the season. We also show that dismissing a coach may enhance performance only if the team under-performed before the dismissal. There is no obstacle to using the same method for professional teams in other sports. The method is easily reproducible and does not require much information in order to be applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvon Rocaboy & Marek Pavlik, 2020. "Performance Expectations of Professional Sport Teams and In-Season Head Coach Dismissals—Evidence from the English and French Men’s Football First Divisions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-20, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:82-:d:425325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/8/4/82/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/8/4/82/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence M. Kahn, 2006. "Race, Performance, Pay, and Retention Among National Basketball Association Head Coaches," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 7(2), pages 119-149, May.
    2. Paul Holmes, 2011. "Win or Go Home: Why College Football Coaches Get Fired," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(2), pages 157-178, April.
    3. Rick Audas & John Goddard & W. Glenn Rowe, 2006. "Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post-succession performance," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-306.
    4. Robert Breunig & Bronwyn Garrett-Rumba & Mathieu Jardin & Yvon Rocaboy, 2014. "Wage dispersion and team performance: a theoretical model and evidence from baseball," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 271-281, January.
    5. Franklin G. Mixon, Jr. & Len J. Treviño, 2004. "How Race Affects Dismissals of College Football Coaches," Journal of Labor Research, Transaction Publishers, vol. 25(4), pages 645-656, October.
    6. Jan C. van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2016. "In-Season Head-Coach Dismissals And The Performance Of Professional Football Teams," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 591-604, January.
    7. Carlos Pestana Barros & Bernd Frick & Jose Passos, 2009. "Coaching for survival: the hazards of head coach careers in the German 'Bundesliga'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(25), pages 3303-3311.
    8. Claudio Detotto & Dimitri Paolini & J. D. Tena, 2018. "Do managerial skills matter? An analysis of the impact of managerial features on performance for Italian football," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(2), pages 270-282, February.
    9. Stefano d’Addona & Axel Kind, 2014. "Forced Manager Turnovers in English Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 150-179, April.
    10. de Dios Tena, Juan & Forrest, David, 2007. "Within-season dismissal of football coaches: Statistical analysis of causes and consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 362-373, August.
    11. Flores, Ramón & Forrest, David & Tena, J.D., 2012. "Decision taking under pressure: Evidence on football manager dismissals in Argentina and their consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 653-662.
    12. R. H. Koning, 2003. "An econometric evaluation of the effect of firing a coach on team performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 555-564.
    13. J. K. Ashton & B. Gerrard & R. Hudson, 2011. "Do national soccer results really impact on the stock market?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3709-3717.
    14. Frick, Bernd & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Prinz, Joachim, 2010. "Analysing head coach dismissals in the German "Bundesliga" with a mixed logit approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 151-159, January.
    15. W. David Allen & Clint Chadwick, 2012. "Performance, Expectations, and Managerial Dismissal," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 337-363, August.
    16. Nicolas Scelles & Matthieu Llorca, 2. "Head coach change and team performance in the French men's football Ligue 1, 2000-2016," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 920-937020.
    17. Andrés Picazo-Tadeo & Francisco González-Gómez, 2010. "Does playing several competitions influence a team’s league performance? Evidence from Spanish professional football," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(3), pages 413-432, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas (T.L.P.R.) Peeters & Stefan Szymanski & Marko Terviö, 2017. "The inefficient advantage of experience in the market for football managers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-116/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Stefano d’Addona & Axel Kind, 2014. "Forced Manager Turnovers in English Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 150-179, April.
    3. Frick, Bernd & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Prinz, Joachim, 2010. "Analysing head coach dismissals in the German "Bundesliga" with a mixed logit approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 151-159, January.
    4. Luc Arrondel & Richard Duhautois & Cédric Zimmer, 2020. "Within-season dismissals of football managers: evidence from the French Ligue 1," PSE Working Papers halshs-02505315, HAL.
    5. Kaori Narita & J.D. Tena & Babatunde Buraimo, 2022. "Causal and Consequences of Multiple Dismissals: Evidence from Italian Football League," Working Papers 202226, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    6. Wangrow, David B. & Schepker, Donald J. & Barker, Vincent L., 2018. "Power, performance, and expectations in the dismissal of NBA coaches: A survival analysis study," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 333-346.
    7. Kaori Naritaa & J .D. Tenaa & Claudio Detottoc, 2020. "What Makes the Ideal Profile of a New Manager in Times of Adversity? Evidence from Italian Serie A," Working Papers 202031, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    8. Yvon Rocaboy & Marek Pavlik, 2019. "Performance expectations of professional sport teams and in-season head coach dismissals: Evidence from the English Premier League and the French Ligue 1 using Monte Carlo simulation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2019-01, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    9. Claudio Detotto & Dimitri Paolini & J. D. Tena, 2018. "Do managerial skills matter? An analysis of the impact of managerial features on performance for Italian football," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(2), pages 270-282, February.
    10. Janina Kleinknecht & Daniel Würtenberger, 2022. "Information effects of managerial turnover on effort and performance: Evidence from the German Bundesliga," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 791-812, April.
    11. Lucas M. Besters & Jan C. Ours & Martin A. Tuijl, 2016. "Effectiveness of In-Season Manager Changes in English Premier League Football," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 335-356, September.
    12. Salaga, Steven & Juravich, Matthew, 2020. "National Football League head coach race, performance, retention, and dismissal," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 978-991.
    13. Gilfix Zach & Meyerson James & Addona Vittorio, 2020. "Longevity differences in the tenures of American and foreign Major League Soccer managers," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 17-26, March.
    14. van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin, 2014. "In-season head-coach dismissals and the performance of professional football teams," CEPR Discussion Papers 10191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Marte Bentzen & Göran Kenttä & Pierre-Nicolas Lemyre, 2020. "Elite Football Coaches Experiences and Sensemaking about Being Fired: An Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-13, July.
    16. Jan C. van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2016. "In-Season Head-Coach Dismissals And The Performance Of Professional Football Teams," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 591-604, January.
    17. Humphreys, Brad R. & Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2016. "Performance expectations and the tenure of head coaches: Evidence from NCAA football," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 482-492.
    18. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Michael A. Roach, 2022. "Career concerns and personnel investment in the Major League Baseball player draft," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 413-426, January.
    20. Stijn Baert & Simon Amez, 2018. "No better moment to score a goal than just before half time? A soccer myth statistically tested," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    coach dismissal; Monte Carlo simulation; team performance; payrolls; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F - International Economics
    • I - Health, Education, and Welfare
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:82-:d:425325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.