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Can I live with you after I retire? Retirement, old age support and internal migration in a developing country

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  • Simiao Chen
  • Zhangfeng Jin
  • Klaus Prettner

Abstract

This study provides causal evidence on the impact of retirement on internal migration in a developing country. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, combined with a nationally representative sample of 228,855 older Chinese adults, we find that retirement leads to an increase in the probability of being a migrant by 12.9 percentage points (an 80% increase in migration). Approximately 38% of the total migration effects can be attributed to intertemporal shifts. The impact is more pronounced for the lower‐educated, those who have restricted access to health insurance and pension and those who come from origins with high accommodation costs. Relying on old age support from adult children in migration is a likely mechanism. Lifting migration restrictions and improving government‐provided benefits for retirees could be helpful to cope with population aging in a developing country. Puis‐je vivre avec toi après ma retraite? La retraite, le soutien aux personnes âgées et la migration interne dans un pays en développement. Cette étude présente des données causales sur la répercussion de la retraite sur la migration interne dans un pays en développement. À l'aide d'une méthode de régression sur une discontinuité « flou » (fuzzy design), associée à un échantillon représentatif à l'échelle nationale de 228 855 personnes âgées en Chine, nous constatons que la retraite entraîne une hausse de la probabilité d'être un migrant de 12,9 points de pourcentage (une hausse de 80 % de la migration). Environ 38 % de l'effet migratoire total peut être attribué aux changements intertemporels. La répercussion est plus prononcée pour les personnes moins éduquées, celles qui ont un accès limité à l'assurance‐maladie et à des prestations de retraite et celles issues de milieux où les frais de logements sont élevés. La migration pour la prise en charge d'une personne âgée par un enfant adulte est un mécanisme probable. Il pourrait être utile d'alléger les restrictions liées à la migration et d'améliorer les prestations gouvernementales destinées aux retraités pour faire face au vieillissement de la population dans un pays en développement.

Suggested Citation

  • Simiao Chen & Zhangfeng Jin & Klaus Prettner, 2023. "Can I live with you after I retire? Retirement, old age support and internal migration in a developing country," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 964-988, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:56:y:2023:i:3:p:964-988
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12666
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