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Longevity-induced vertical innovation and the tradeoff between life and growth

Author

Listed:
  • Annarita Baldanzi

    (University of Milan
    University of Pavia)

  • Klaus Prettner

    (University of Hohenheim)

  • Paul Tscheuschner

    (University of Hohenheim)

Abstract

We analyze the economic growth effects of rising longevity in a framework of endogenous growth driven by quality-improving innovations. A rise in longevity increases savings and thereby places downward pressure on the market interest rate. Since the monopoly profits generated by a successful innovation are discounted by the endogenous market interest rate, this raises the net present value of innovations, which, in turn, fosters R&D investments. The associated increase in the employment of scientists leads to faster technological progress and a higher long-run economic growth rate. From a welfare perspective, the direct effect of an increase in life expectancy tends to be larger than the indirect effect of the induced higher consumption due to faster economic growth. Consequently, the debate on rising health care expenditures should not be predominantly based on the growth effects of health care.

Suggested Citation

  • Annarita Baldanzi & Klaus Prettner & Paul Tscheuschner, 2019. "Longevity-induced vertical innovation and the tradeoff between life and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1313, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:32:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s00148-018-0724-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-018-0724-x
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    3. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2020. "The scientific revolution and its role in the transition to sustained economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 06-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    4. Parui, Pintu & Prettner, Klaus, 2024. "Public provision of healthcare and basic science: What are the effects on economic growth and welfare?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 365, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Wenqun Gao & Yang Chen & Shaorui Xu & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko, 2023. "The Role of Population Aging in High-Quality Economic Development: Mediating Role of Technological Innovation," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, October.
    6. Tscheuschner, Paul, 2021. "Endogenous life expectancy and R&D-based economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 01-2021, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    7. Xiaomeng Zhang & Theodore Palivos & Xiangbo Liu, 2022. "Aging and automation in economies with search frictions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 621-642, April.
    8. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2023. "The scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2023. "Rising Longevity, Increasing the Retirement Age, and the Consequences for Knowledge‐based Long‐run Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 39-64, January.
    11. Jin, Zhangfeng & Zhang, Junsen, 2023. "Access to local citizenship and internal migration in a developing country: Evidence from a Hukou reform in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 181-215.
    12. Catarina Peralta & Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2021. "Automation, Education, and Population: Dynamic Effects in an OLG Growth and Fertility Model," CEF.UP Working Papers 2102, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    13. Aisa, Rosa & Cabeza, Josefina & Martin, Jorge, 2023. "Automation and aging: The impact on older workers in the workforce," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    14. Chen, Simiao & Jin, Zhangfeng & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "Can I live with you after I retire? Retirement, old age support, and internal migration of older adults in China," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 303, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    15. Zhang, Junlai & Prettner, Klaus & Chen, Simiao & Bloom, David E., 2023. "Beyond GDP: Using healthy lifetime income to trace well-being over time with estimates for 193 countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    16. Belyakov, A.O. & Kurbatskiy, A.N. & Prettner, K., 2021. "The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run growth; Vertical innovation; Increasing life expectancy; Welfare effects of changing longevity; Size of health care sectors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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