IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/463.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Retirement Migration Puzzle in China

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Simiao
  • Jin, Zhangfeng
  • Prettner, Klaus

Abstract

We examine whether and how retirement affects migration decisions in China. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design approach combined with a nationally representative sample of 228,855 adults aged between 40 and 75, we find that retirement increases the probability of migration by 12.9 percentage points. Approximately 38% of the total migration effects can be attributed to inter-temporal substitution (delayed migration). Retirement-induced migrants are lower-educated and have restricted access to social security. Household-level migration decisions can reconcile different migration responses across gender. Retirees migrate for risk sharing and family protection mechnisms, reducing market production of their families in the receiving households.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Simiao & Jin, Zhangfeng & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The Retirement Migration Puzzle in China," GLO Discussion Paper Series 463, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:463
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/213433/1/GLO-DP-0463.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erich Battistin & Agar Brugiavini & Enrico Rettore & Guglielmo Weber, 2009. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2209-2226, December.
    2. Elena Stancanelli & Arthur Van Soest, 2012. "Retirement and Home Production: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 600-605, May.
    3. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    4. Maximilian v. Ehrlich & Tobias Seidel, 2018. "The Persistent Effects of Place-Based Policy: Evidence from the West-German Zonenrandgebiet," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 344-374, November.
    5. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    6. Bowles, Samuel, 1970. "Migration as Investment: Empirical Tests of the Human Investment Approach to Geographical Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(4), pages 356-362, November.
    7. Alan I. Barreca & Melanie Guldi & Jason M. Lindo & Glen R. Waddell, 2011. "Saving Babies? Revisiting the effect of very low birth weight classification," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 2117-2123.
    8. Dong, Keyong, 2009. "Medical insurance system evolution in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 591-597, December.
    9. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Fitzpatrick, Maria D. & Moore, Timothy J., 2018. "The mortality effects of retirement: Evidence from Social Security eligibility at age 62," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 121-137.
    11. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    12. Xin Meng, 2012. "Labor Market Outcomes and Reforms in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 75-102, Fall.
    13. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Stark, Oded, 1989. "Consumption Smoothing, Migration, and Marriage: Evidence from Rural India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 905-926, August.
    14. Hitoshi Shigeoka, 2014. "The Effect of Patient Cost Sharing on Utilization, Health, and Risk Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2152-2184, July.
    15. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Swagel, Phillip, 2002. "Tax burden and migration: a political economy theory and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 167-190, August.
    16. Lee, David S. & Card, David, 2008. "Regression discontinuity inference with specification error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 655-674, February.
    17. Michael Insler, 2014. "The Health Consequences of Retirement," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(1), pages 195-233.
    18. Xu, Ke-Li, 2017. "Regression discontinuity with categorical outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 1-18.
    19. Yaohui Zhao, 1999. "Leaving the Countryside: Rural-to-Urban Migration Decisions in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 281-286, May.
    20. Hongbin Li & Xinzheng Shi & Binzhen Wu, 2015. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 437-441, May.
    21. André Gröger & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Internal Labor Migration as a Shock Coping Strategy: Evidence from a Typhoon," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 123-153, April.
    22. Manuela Angelucci, 2015. "Migration and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 224-228, March.
    23. Melanie Morten, 2019. "Temporary Migration and Endogenous Risk Sharing in Village India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 1-46.
    24. Zhang, Yi & Salm, Martin & van Soest, Arthur, 2018. "The effect of retirement on healthcare utilization: Evidence from China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 165-177.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhuang Hao & Huihui Cheng & Till Bärnighausen & Simiao Chen, 2024. "The effects of parental retirement on adult children's health: Evidence from China," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 12-20, January.
    2. Jin, Zhangfeng, 2020. "Welfare Magnets and Internal Migration in China," GLO Discussion Paper Series 498, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simiao Chen & Zhangfeng Jin & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Can I live with you after I retire? Retirement, old age support, and internal migration of older adults in China," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp303, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Simiao Chen & Zhangfeng Jin & Klaus Prettner, 2023. "Can I live with you after I retire? Retirement, old age support and internal migration in a developing country," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 964-988, August.
    3. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    4. Wu, Qi & Gao, Xin, 2020. "The Effects of Parental Retirement on Adult Children’s Labor Supply: Evidence From China," MPRA Paper 103914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Davezies, Laurent & Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2017. "Regression discontinuity design with continuous measurement error in the running variable," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 260-281.
    6. Jin-young Choi & Myoung-jae Lee, 2017. "Regression discontinuity: review with extensions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1217-1246, December.
    7. Chen, Xi, 2022. "The impact of spousal and own retirement on health: Evidence from urban China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Xu, Ke-Li, 2017. "Regression discontinuity with categorical outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 1-18.
    9. Giesecke, Matthias & Jäger, Philipp, 2021. "Pension incentives and labor supply: Evidence from the introduction of universal old-age assistance in the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    10. Shenglong Liu & Yuanyuan Wan & Xiaoming Zhang, 2024. "Retirement Spillover Effects on Spousal Health in Urban China," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 756-783, September.
    11. Zhang, Yi & Salm, Martin & van Soest, Arthur, 2018. "The effect of retirement on healthcare utilization: Evidence from China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 165-177.
    12. Nielsen, Nick Fabrin, 2019. "Sick of retirement?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 133-152.
    13. Takahide Yanagi, 2014. "The Effect of Measurement Error in the Sharp Regression Discontinuity Design," KIER Working Papers 910, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    14. Cheng, Lingguo & Lu, Yunfeng, 2024. "Does retirement make people more risk averse?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 135-155.
    15. Matteo Picchio & Jan C. van Ours, 2020. "Mental Health Effects of Retirement," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 419-452, September.
    16. Emily Rauscher & Byeongdon Oh, 2021. "Going Places: Effects of Early U.S. Compulsory Schooling Laws on Internal Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(2), pages 255-283, April.
    17. Bartalotti, Otávio C. & Calhoun, Gray & He, Yang, 2016. "Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Sharp Regression Discontinuity Designs with the Uniform Kernel," Staff General Research Papers Archive 3394, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Heinesen, Eskil, 2018. "Admission to higher education programmes and student educational outcomes and earnings–Evidence from Denmark," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-19.
    19. Müller, Tobias & Shaikh, Mujaheed, 2018. "Your retirement and my health behavior: Evidence on retirement externalities from a fuzzy regression discontinuity design," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 45-59.
    20. Fischer, Björn & Müller, Kai-Uwe, 2020. "Time to care? The effects of retirement on informal care provision," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retirement; Migration decision; Regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:463. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.