IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/apecpp/v44y2022i3p1393-1408.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can China meet its purchase obligations under the Phase One Trade Agreement?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Muhammad
  • Stephen A. Smith
  • Jason H. Grant

Abstract

This paper examines China's likelihood of meeting its purchase obligations under the Phase One Trade Agreement. In 2020, US agricultural exports to China ($27.2 billion) were 85% higher than in 2019 but 18% short of the first‐year Phase One goal ($33.4 billion). Evidence shows that many sectors experienced no change, particularly when compared to exports before the trade war. Some sectors benefited from China's overall demand growth and not necessarily from agreement commitments. Although there were substantial increases in exports of other major products (e.g., corn and poultry), these increases could not make up for less than expected soybean exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Muhammad & Stephen A. Smith & Jason H. Grant, 2022. "Can China meet its purchase obligations under the Phase One Trade Agreement?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1393-1408, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:44:y:2022:i:3:p:1393-1408
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13180
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/aepp.13180?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Fontagne, Lionel & Mimouni, Mondher, 2008. "AJAE Appendix: The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade: Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-7.
    2. Aaditya Mattoo & Robert W Staiger, 2020. "Trade wars: What do they mean? Why are they happening now? What are the costs?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 561-584.
    3. Yuan Li & John C. Beghin, 2017. "Protectionism indices for non-tariff measures: An application to maximum residue levels," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 10, pages 167-178, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Hoekman, Bernard & Nicita, Alessandro, 2011. "Trade Policy, Trade Costs, and Developing Country Trade," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2069-2079.
    5. Joseph P. Janzen & Nathan P. Hendricks, 2020. "Are Farmers Made Whole by Trade Aid?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 205-226, June.
    6. Shawn Arita & Jason Grant & Sharon Sydow & Jayson Beckman, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient under COVID-19? Findings from an Econometric Assessment of 2020," NBER Chapters, in: Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2022. "China’s import demand for agricultural products: The impact of the Phase One trade agreement," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 345-368, February.
    8. Haley, Mildred & Gale, Fred, 2020. "African Swine Fever Shrinks Pork Production in China, Swells Demand for Imported Pork," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 0(01), February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca, 2019. "The Effects of Non‐tariff Measures on Agri‐food Trade: A Review and Meta‐analysis of Empirical Evidence," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 595-617, September.
    2. John C. Beghin & Miet Maertens & Johan Swinnen, 2017. "Nontariff Measures and Standards in Trade and Global Value Chains," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 2, pages 13-38 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. John C. Beghin & Miet Maertens & Johan Swinnen, 2017. "Nontariff Measures and Standards in Trade and Global Value Chains," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 2, pages 13-38, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Jason H. Grant & Kathryn A. Boys & Chaoping Xie, 2021. "A new president in the White House: implications for Canadian agricultural trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(1), pages 45-58, March.
    5. John C. Beghin & Heidi Schweizer, 2021. "Agricultural Trade Costs," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 500-530, June.
    6. Annalisa Zezza & Federica Demaria & Maria Rosaria Pupo d'Andrea & Jo Swinnen & Giulia Meloni & Senne Vandevelde & Alessandro Olper & Daniele Curzi & Valentina Raimondi & Sophie Drogue, 2018. "Research for AGRI Committee - Agricultural trade: assessing reciprocity of standards," Working Papers hal-02787948, HAL.
    7. Bo Xiong & John Beghin, 2017. "Disentangling Demand-Enhancing And Trade-Cost Effects Of Maximum Residue Regulations," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 6, pages 105-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. John Christopher Beghin & Anne-Célia Disdier & Stéphan Marette, 2017. "Trade restrictiveness indices in the presence of externalities: An application to non-tariff measures," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 5, pages 81-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Eyal RONEN, 2017. "Quantifying the trade effects of NTMs: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 263-274, September.
    10. José Manuel Álvarez Zárate (Editor), 2016. "¿Hacia dónde va América Latina respecto al derecho económico internacional?," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 860, October.
    11. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "COVID-19 Trade Actions and Their Impact on the Agricultural and Food Sector," 2023 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2023, New Orleans, Louisiana 316789, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Hejazi, Mina & Grant, Jason H. & Peterson, Everett, 2016. "Hidden Trade Costs? Maximum Residue Limits and US Exports to Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific Trading Partners," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235847, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Festus Ebo Turkson, 2011. "Logistics and Bilateral Exports in Developing Countries: A Multiplicative Form Estimation of the Logistics Augmented Gravity Equation," Discussion Papers 11/06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    14. Anne‐Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné & Cristina Herghelegiu, 2023. "Do standards improve the quality of traded products?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1238-1290, November.
    15. Olivier Cadot & Julien Gourdon, 2016. "Non-tariff measures, preferential trade agreements, and prices: new evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 227-249, May.
    16. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2018. "Protecting health or protecting imports? Evidence from EU non-tariff measures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 185-202.
    17. Kang, Jong Woo & Ramizo, Dorothea, 2017. "Impact of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and Technical Barriers on International Trade," MPRA Paper 82352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Pramila Crivelli & Jasmin Groeschl, 2016. "The Impact of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures on Market Entry and Trade Flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 444-473, March.
    19. Erik Marel, 2017. "Explaining Export Performance through Inputs: Evidence from Aggregated Cross-country Firm-level Data," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 731-755, August.
    20. Masoud Ali Khalid & Narmen M. Ghafor, 2019. "The Impact of NTMs on Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 8(1), pages 37-47, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:44:y:2022:i:3:p:1393-1408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2040-5804 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.