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Quantifying the Yield Sensitivity of Modern Rice Varieties to Warming Temperatures: Evidence from the Philippines

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  • Ruixue Wang
  • Roderick M. Rejesus
  • Jesse B. Tack
  • Joseph V. Balagtas
  • Andy D. Nelson

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between yields of modern rice varieties and warming temperatures. Data from a long‐running farm‐level survey in the Philippines, with rich information on planted rice varieties, allow us to estimate fixed effect econometric models of rice yields. We find that increases in temperature, especially minimum temperatures, have statistically significant negative impacts on rice yields. Point estimates of the marginal effect of higher temperatures on rice yields indicate that early modern varieties bred primarily for higher yields, pest resistance, and/or grain quality traits (i.e., not necessarily abiotic stress tolerance) tend to be more resilient to heat events than traditional rice varieties. Moreover, the marginal effect point estimates also suggest that more recent rice varieties bred for better tolerance to abiotic stresses are likely more resilient to warming than both traditional varieties and early modern varieties. Notwithstanding the heat resilience pattern suggested by these point estimates, we are unable to find statistically significant differences in the marginal yield response to warming across these three rice varietal groups. These results provide suggestive evidence that rice breeding efforts have improved resilience to warming temperatures and point to several interesting future research directions.

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  • Ruixue Wang & Roderick M. Rejesus & Jesse B. Tack & Joseph V. Balagtas & Andy D. Nelson, 2022. "Quantifying the Yield Sensitivity of Modern Rice Varieties to Warming Temperatures: Evidence from the Philippines," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 318-339, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:104:y:2022:i:1:p:318-339
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12210
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    1. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Kishore, Avinash & Kumar, Anjani, 2024. "Climate shocks and fertilizer responses: Field-level evidence for rice production in Bangladesh," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344280, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    2. Abebe, Meseret B. & Alem, Yonas, 2023. "Drought, Livestock Holding, and Milk Production: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis," EfD Discussion Paper 23-12, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    3. François Bareille & Raja Chakir, 2024. "Structural identification of weather impacts on crop yields: Disentangling agronomic from adaptation effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 989-1019, May.
    4. Rahman, Md Mamunur & Nguyen, Ruby & Lu, Liang, 2022. "Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).

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