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How Chinese Farmers Change Crop Choice To Adapt To Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • JINXIA WANG

    (Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, China;
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)

  • ROBERT MENDELSOHN

    (School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, USA)

  • ARIEL DINAR

    (Water Science and Policy Center, University of California Riverside, USA)

  • JIKUN HUANG

    (Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, China;
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)

Abstract

A multinomial logit model is estimated across the crop choices of a sample of thousands of Chinese farmers. As temperatures warm, farmers are more likely to choose cotton and maize, but less likely to choose soybeans, and vegetables. As precipitation increases, farmers are more likely to choose wheat and less likely to choose vegetables and potatoes. We simulate how crop choice outcomes might change using the empirical results and a set of climate change predictions for 2100. The magnitude of the change is sensitive to the climate scenario and to the seasonal and regional variation of climate change predictions within China.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang, 2010. "How Chinese Farmers Change Crop Choice To Adapt To Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(03), pages 167-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:01:y:2010:i:03:n:s2010007810000145
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007810000145
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2009. "Climate Change and Agriculture," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12990.
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