Crop diversification and the effect of weather shocks on Italian farmers' income and income risk

Agriculture is vulnerable to extreme weather shocks. Climate change increases both the frequency and the intensity of such shocks. To safeguard farmers' income and food production, climate adaptation measures are required. This article aims to examine the effectiveness of crop diversification as an adaptation measure, using Italy as a case study. We apply a control function approach to a panel dataset of 20,790 Italian farms, which considers (i) the crop diversification decision and (ii) the influence of crop diversification on farmers' levels of crop income and income risk. We find that, while specialisation can increase income, crop diversification reduces income risk most effectively when growing four different crops. At this level of diversification, income risk is approximately 29% lower as opposed to monoculture farming. Although the Common Agricultural Policy's greening payments for crop diversification make sense from an ecological and risk‐reducing point of view, we find that they are potentially insufficient to cover the loss of expected crop income from diversification. While crop diversification reduces income risk in general, we find no specific benefit in terms of weather shock‐induced risks. This may be because a price increase following a weather shock buffers its adverse effect. However, identifying the reasons requires further research.