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Impact of COVID‐19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China

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  • Jianqing Ruan
  • Qingwen Cai
  • Songqing Jin

Abstract

In this paper, we employ a combination of time regression discontinuity design method (T‐RD) and the difference‐in‐difference method (DID) to identify and quantify the causal effects of the strict lockdown policy on vegetable prices using multiple‐year daily price data from 151 wholesale markets of Chinese cabbage. We find that the lockdown policy caused a large and immediate surge in price and price dispersion of Chinese cabbage, though they fluctuated smoothly for the same period in normal years. The DID results further show that the price surge peaked in the fourth week of lockdown but gradually came down to the level of a normal year by week 11. However, the price rose again (though to a much smaller extent) in response to the resurgence of COVID‐19 in a few provinces in early‐mid April but quickly returned to the normal level in week 15 when the lockdown measures were largely removed. We also find that the supply chain disruption is the driving factor for the price hike. Policy implications are drawn.

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  • Jianqing Ruan & Qingwen Cai & Songqing Jin, 2021. "Impact of COVID‐19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1574-1594, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:103:y:2021:i:5:p:1574-1594
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12211
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    2. Du, Xinming & Tan, Elaine & Elhan-Kayalar, Yesim & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2022. "Economic Impact of COVID-19 Containment Policies: Evidence Based on Novel Surface Heat Data from the People’s Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 673, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Ma, Meilin & Delgado, Michael S. & Wang, H. Holly, 2024. "Risk, arbitrage, and spatial price relationships: Insights from China's hog market under the African Swine Fever," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Peter Agamile, 2022. "COVID-19 Lockdown and Exposure of Households to Food Insecurity in Uganda: Insights from a National High Frequency Phone Survey," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(6), pages 3050-3075, December.
    5. Pallavi Rajkhowa & Lukas Kornher, 2022. "COVID-19 and distortions in urban food market in India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 133-164, June.
    6. David Wuepper & Robert Finger, 2023. "Regression discontinuity designs in agricultural and environmental economics," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28.
    7. Guedegbe, Tharcisse & Adelaja, Adesoji & George, Justin, 2023. "Resilience, endogenous policy responses to COVID-19, and their impacts on farm performance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Guo, Jianxin & Jin, Songqing & Zhao, Jichun & Wang, Hongbiao & Zhao, Fang, 2022. "Has COVID-19 accelerated the E-commerce of agricultural products? Evidence from sales data of E-stores in China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
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