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Engineering estimates versus impact evaluation of energy efficiency projects: Regression discontinuity evidence from a case study

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  • Lang, Corey
  • Siler, Matthew

Abstract

Energy efficiency upgrades have been gaining widespread attention across global channels as a cost-effective approach to addressing energy challenges. The cost-effectiveness of these projects is generally predicted using engineering estimates pre-implementation, often with little ex post analysis of project success. In this paper, for a suite of energy efficiency projects, we directly compare ex ante engineering estimates of energy savings to ex post econometric estimates that use 15-min interval, building-level energy consumption data. In contrast to most prior literature, our econometric results confirm the engineering estimates, even suggesting the engineering estimates were too modest. Further, we find heterogeneous efficiency impacts by time of day, suggesting select efficiency projects can be useful in reducing peak load.

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  • Lang, Corey & Siler, Matthew, 2013. "Engineering estimates versus impact evaluation of energy efficiency projects: Regression discontinuity evidence from a case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 360-370.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:360-370
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.122
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    3. Castro Pérez, José E. & Flores, Daniel, 2023. "The effect of retail price regulation on the wholesale price of electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Lang, Corey & Okwelum, Edson, 2015. "The mitigating effect of strategic behavior on the net benefits of a direct load control program," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 141-148.
    5. Jianqing Ruan & Qingwen Cai & Songqing Jin, 2021. "Impact of COVID‐19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1574-1594, October.
    6. Bertoldi, Paolo & Mosconi, Rocco, 2020. "Do energy efficiency policies save energy? A new approach based on energy policy indicators (in the EU Member States)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Catherine Hausman & David S. Rapson, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity in Time: Considerations for Empirical Applications," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 533-552, October.
    8. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario, 2023. "Carbon pricing and emissions: Causal effects of Britain's carbon tax," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Rana, Anber & Sadiq, Rehan & Alam, M. Shahria & Karunathilake, Hirushie & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Evaluation of financial incentives for green buildings in Canadian landscape," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

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