IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v75y2022ics0301420721005110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the multidimensional effects of China's coal de-capacity policy: A regression discontinuity design

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Yadong
  • Wang, Delu
  • Shi, Xunpeng

Abstract

Coal phase-out is a key step for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The Chinese government introduced a coal de-capacity policy (CDP) in 2016. However, existing studies rarely discuss the effectiveness of China's implementation of the CDP, especially regarding the policy goal of "improving quality and increasing efficiency." In this context, this study quantitatively evaluates the multidimensional effects of China's CDP in terms of economic efficiency, green production, and employee welfare using a sharp regression discontinuity design. Moreover, the spatial heterogeneity of policy effects is discussed through subsample analyses. The empirical results are as follows. First, the expected goal of the Chinese CDP has not been fully achieved. Although the CDP has achieved a significantly positive economic effect, the effectiveness of environmental benefits and social welfare remains far from ideal. Second, there is a statistically significant spatial heterogeneity in the CDP's multidimensional effects in different regions. Policy guidelines are proposed in line with the findings to support the adjustment and optimization of de-capacity policy measures for coal and other similar industries. This study thoroughly highlights the economic, environmental, and social effects of the CDP's implementation in China in 2016 and provides a periodical summary and assessment of policy effectiveness. Specifically, the findings provide valuable insights for designing coal de-capacity targets and plans for specific regions, which may help ensure better policy efficiency and feasibility in future coal capacity regulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2022. "Exploring the multidimensional effects of China's coal de-capacity policy: A regression discontinuity design," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:75:y:2022:i:c:s0301420721005110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420721005110
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102504?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuan, Jiahai & Li, Peng & Wang, Yang & Liu, Qian & Shen, Xinyi & Zhang, Kai & Dong, Liansai, 2016. "Coal power overcapacity and investment bubble in China during 2015–2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 136-144.
    2. Glenn Milligan & Martha Cooper, 1988. "A study of standardization of variables in cluster analysis," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 5(2), pages 181-204, September.
    3. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    4. Qin, Xuezheng & Zhuang, Castiel Chen & Yang, Rudai, 2017. "Does the one-child policy improve children's human capital in urban China? A regression discontinuity design," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 287-303.
    5. Wang, Delu & Wan, Kaidi & Song, Xuefeng & Liu, Yun, 2019. "Provincial allocation of coal de-capacity targets in China in terms of cost, efficiency, and fairness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 109-128.
    6. Wang, Delu & Wang, Yadong & Song, Xuefeng & Liu, Yun, 2018. "Coal overcapacity in China: Multiscale analysis and prediction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 244-257.
    7. Peng, Jiachao & Xiao, Jianzhong & Zhang, Lian & Wang, Teng, 2020. "The impact of China's ‘Atmosphere Ten Articles’ policy on total factor productivity of energy exploitation: Empirical evidence using synthetic control methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    9. Catherine Hausman & David S. Rapson, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity in Time: Considerations for Empirical Applications," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 533-552, October.
    10. Wang, Delu & Wan, Kaidi & Song, Xuefeng, 2020. "Understanding coal miners’ livelihood vulnerability to declining coal demand: Negative impact and coping strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Ma, Gang & Li, Xu & Zheng, Jianping, 2020. "Efficiency and equity in regional coal de-capacity allocation in China: A multiple objective programming model based on Gini coefficient and Data Envelopment Analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Zhang, Yanfang & Shi, Xunpeng & Qian, Xiangyan & Chen, Sai & Nie, Rui, 2021. "Macroeconomic effect of energy transition to carbon neutrality: Evidence from China's coal capacity cut policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Wang, Xiaofei & Liu, Chuangeng & Chen, Shaojie & Chen, Lei & Li, Ke & Liu, Na, 2020. "Impact of coal sector’s de-capacity policy on coal price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    14. Xuguang Hao & Mei Song & Yunan Feng & Wen Zhang, 2019. "De-Capacity Policy Effect on China’s Coal Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Wang, Qiang & Li, Rongrong, 2017. "Decline in China's coal consumption: An evidence of peak coal or a temporary blip?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 696-701.
    16. Risch, Anna, 2020. "Are environmental fiscal incentives effective in inducing energy-saving renovations? An econometric evaluation of the French energy tax credit," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Zhang, Weike & Meng, Jia & Tian, Xiaoli, 2020. "Does de-capacity policy enhance the total factor productivity of China's coal companies? A Regression Discontinuity design," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Guido Imbens & Karthik Kalyanaraman, 2012. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 933-959.
    19. Yingying DONG & Ying-Ying LEE & Michael GOU, 2019. "Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Continuous Treatment," Discussion papers 19058, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Zhang, Yanfang & Nie, Rui & Shi, Xunpeng & Qian, Xiangyan & Wang, Ke, 2019. "Can energy-price regulations smooth price fluctuations? Evidence from China’s coal sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 125-135.
    21. Wang, Qiang & Song, Xiaoxin, 2021. "Why do China and India burn 60% of the world’s coal? A decomposition analysis from a global perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    22. Li, Xiaoyu & Yao, Xilong, 2020. "Can energy supply-side and demand-side policies for energy saving and emission reduction be synergistic?--- A simulated study on China's coal capacity cut and carbon tax," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    23. Jie, Dingfei & Xu, Xiangyang & Guo, Fei, 2021. "The future of coal supply in China based on non-fossil energy development and carbon price strategies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    24. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    25. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    26. Yang, Qing & Hou, Xiaochao & Zhang, Lei, 2018. "Measurement of natural and cyclical excess capacity in China's coal industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 270-278.
    27. Wang, Qiang & Li, Rongrong, 2016. "Journey to burning half of global coal: Trajectory and drivers of China׳s coal use," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 341-346.
    28. Shi, Xunpeng & Rioux, Bertrand & Galkin, Philipp, 2018. "Unintended consequences of China’s coal capacity cut policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 478-486.
    29. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    30. Wang, Delu & Liu, Yifei & Wang, Yadong & Shi, Xunpeng & Song, Xuefeng, 2020. "Allocation of coal de-capacity quota among provinces in China: A bi-level multi-objective combinatorial optimization approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    31. Murshed, Muntasir, 2020. "Are Trade Liberalization policies aligned with Renewable Energy Transition in low and middle income countries? An Instrumental Variable approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 1110-1123.
    32. Zhang, Yanfang & Zhang, Ming & Liu, Yue & Nie, Rui, 2017. "Enterprise investment, local government intervention and coal overcapacity: The case of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 162-169.
    33. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    34. Yingying Dong, 2019. "Regression Discontinuity Designs With Sample Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 171-186, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Salman, Muhammad & Long, Xingle & Wang, Guimei & Zha, Donglan, 2022. "Paris climate agreement and global environmental efficiency: New evidence from fuzzy regression discontinuity design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Fan, Lurong & Ma, Ning & Zhang, Wen, 2023. "Multi-stakeholder equilibrium-based subsidy allocation mechanism for promoting coalbed methane scale extraction-utilization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    3. Wang, Xiaolei & Deng, Renxin & Yang, Yufang, 2023. "The spatiotemporal effect of factor price distortion on capacity utilization in China’s iron and steel industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    4. Guo, Jinling & Gao, Junlian & Yan, Kejia & Zhang, Bo, 2023. "Unintended mitigation benefits of China's coal de-capacity policies on methane emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    5. Wang, Tiantian & Qu, Wan & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Time-varying determinants of China's liquefied natural gas import price: A dynamic model averaging approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    6. Meng, Xin & Yu, Yanni, 2023. "Does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect gasoline prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Wang, Tiantian & Wu, Fei & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "Energy market reforms in China and the time-varying connectedness of domestic and international markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Wang, Delu & Wang, Yadong & Jiang, Wuding & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Has outward foreign direct investment alleviated industrial overcapacity in China? An empirical test of the upstream and downstream industrial links," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 250-263.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    2. Xu, Jiuping & Shu, Kejing & Wang, Fengjuan & Yang, Guocan, 2024. "Bi-level multi-objective distribution strategy integrating the permit trading scheme towards coal production capacity layout optimization: Case study from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Zhang, Weike & Meng, Jia & Tian, Xiaoli, 2020. "Does de-capacity policy enhance the total factor productivity of China's coal companies? A Regression Discontinuity design," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2021. "Exploring the dilemma of overcapacity governance in China's coal industry: A tripartite evolutionary game model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Blaise Melly & Rafael Lalive, 2020. "Estimation, Inference, and Interpretation in the Regression Discontinuity Design," Diskussionsschriften dp2016, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    6. Wang, Xiaofei & Miao, Chenglin & Wang, Chongmei & Yin, Dawei & Chen, Shaojie & Chen, Lei & Li, Ke, 2022. "Coal production capacity allocation based on efficiency perspective—taking production mines in Shandong Province as an example," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    7. Prakash, Nishith & Rockmore, Marc & Uppal, Yogesh, 2019. "Do criminally accused politicians affect economic outcomes? Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Zhang, Rui & Qie, Xiaotong & Hu, Yanyong & Chen, Xue, 2022. "Does de-capacity policy promote the efficient and green development of the coal industry? –Based on the evidence of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Henri Bussink & Bas ter Weel, 2022. "Costs and benefits of an Individual Learning Account (ILA): A simulation analysis for the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-077/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Shi, Xunpeng & Tian, Binbin & Yang, Longjian & Yu, Jian & Zhou, Siyang, 2023. "How do regulatory environmental policies perform? A case study of China's Top-10,000 enterprises energy-saving program," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    11. Xia, Dan & Zhang, Ling, 2022. "Coupling coordination degree between coal production reduction and CO2 emission reduction in coal industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    12. Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik, 2022. "Regression Discontinuity Designs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 821-851, August.
    13. Salim Atay & Gunes A. Asik & Semih Tumen, 2024. "Impact of Graduating with Honours on Entry Wages of Economics Majors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(3), pages 606-640, June.
    14. Wang, Yanbo & Li, Jizhen & Furman, Jeffrey L., 2017. "Firm performance and state innovation funding: Evidence from China’s innofund program," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1142-1161.
    15. Chen, Yi & Zhao, Yi, 2022. "The timing of first marriage and subsequent life outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 713-731.
    16. Ivan A Canay & Vishal Kamat, 2018. "Approximate Permutation Tests and Induced Order Statistics in the Regression Discontinuity Design," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1577-1608.
    17. Christopher S. Carpenter & Carlos Dobkin & Casey Warman, 2016. "The Mechanisms of Alcohol Control," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(2), pages 328-356.
    18. Adam C. Sales & Ben B. Hansen, 2020. "Limitless Regression Discontinuity," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 45(2), pages 143-174, April.
    19. Quaresima Federico & Santolini Raffaella & Fiorillo Fabio, 2020. "Political affiliation in post-parliamentary careers in Italian public enterprises," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 35-64, April.
    20. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2020. "The impact of health insurance on stockholding: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:75:y:2022:i:c:s0301420721005110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.