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The impact of epidemics on agricultural production and forecast of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Shurui Zhang
  • Shuo Wang
  • Lingran Yuan
  • Xiaoguang Liu
  • Binlei Gong

Abstract

Purpose - This article investigates the mechanism of the direct and indirect effects of epidemics on agricultural production and projects the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural output in China. Design/methodology/approach - This article first adopts a dynamic panel model and spatial Durbin model to estimate the direct and indirect effects, followed by a growth accounting method to identify the channels by which epidemics affect agriculture; finally, it projects the overall impact of COVID-19 on agriculture. Findings - The incidence rate of epidemics in a province has a negative impact on that province's own agricultural productivity, but the increase in the input factors (land, fertilizer and machinery) can make up for the loss and thus lead to insignificant direct effects. However, this “input-offset-productivity” mechanism fails to radiate to the surrounding provinces and therefore leads to significant indirect/spillover effects. It is projected that COVID-19 will lower China's agricultural growth rate by 0.4%–2.0% in 2020 under different scenarios. Research limitations/implications - It is crucial to establish a timely disclosure and sharing system of epidemic information across provinces, improve the support and resilience of agricultural production in the short run and accelerate the process of agricultural modernization in the long run. Originality/value - Considering the infectivity of epidemics, this article evaluates the mechanism of the direct and indirect effects by introducing a spatial dynamic model into the growth accounting framework. Moreover, besides the impact on input portfolio and productivity, this article also investigates whether epidemics reshape agricultural production processes due to panic effects and control measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Shurui Zhang & Shuo Wang & Lingran Yuan & Xiaoguang Liu & Binlei Gong, 2020. "The impact of epidemics on agricultural production and forecast of COVID-19," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(3), pages 409-425, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:caerpp:caer-04-2020-0055
    DOI: 10.1108/CAER-04-2020-0055
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yang Yu & Jesús Rodrigo-Comino, 2021. "Analyzing Regional Geographic Challenges: The Resilience of Chinese Vineyards to Land Degradation Using a Societal and Biophysical Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Xin Deng & Miao Zeng & Dingde Xu & Yanbin Qi, 2020. "Does Social Capital Help to Reduce Farmland Abandonment? Evidence from Big Survey Data in Rural China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Jianqing Ruan & Qingwen Cai & Songqing Jin, 2021. "Impact of COVID‐19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1574-1594, October.
    4. Zaharia, Marian & Gogonea, Rodica- Manuela & Balacescu, Aniela, 2020. "Territorial dimension of wheat production in Romania," MPRA Paper 106301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jianxin Guo & Songqing Jin & Jichun Zhao & Yuhua Li, 2023. "E‐commerce and supply chain resilience during COVID‐19: Evidence from agricultural input e‐stores in China," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 369-393, June.
    6. Guang Chen & Yue Deng & Apurbo Sarkar & Zhengbing Wang, 2022. "An Integrated Assessment of Different Types of Environment-Friendly Technological Progress and Their Spatial Spillover Effects in the Chinese Agriculture Sector," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.
    7. Zesen Qian & Lingran Yuan & Shuo Wang & Qizheng Zhang & Binlei Gong, 2021. "Epidemics, Convergence, and Common Prosperity: Evidence from China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(6), pages 117-138, November.
    8. Collins C. Okolie & Abiodun A. Ogundeji, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 on agricultural production and food security: A scientometric analysis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Dixon, John M. & Weerahewa, Jeevika & Hellin, Jon & Rola-Rubzen, Maria Fay & Huang, Jikun & Kumar, Shalander & Das, Anup & Qureshi, Muhammad Ejaz & Krupnik, Timothy J. & Shideed, Kamil & Jat, Mangi L., 2021. "Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Yuan, Lingran & Zhang, Qizheng & Wang, Shuo & Hu, Weibin & Gong, Binlei, 2022. "Effects of international trade on world agricultural production and productivity: evidence from a panel of 126 countries 1962-2014," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 25(2), March.
    11. Zhang, Qizheng & Qian, Zesen & Wang, Shuo & Yuan, Lingran & Gong, Binlei, 2022. "Productivity drain or productivity gain? The effect of new technology adoption in the oilfield market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Dionysis Bochtis & Lefteris Benos & Maria Lampridi & Vasso Marinoudi & Simon Pearson & Claus G. Sørensen, 2020. "Agricultural Workforce Crisis in Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-13, October.
    13. Nadežda Jankelová & Juraj Mišún, 2021. "Key Competencies of Agricultural Managers in the Acute Stage of the COVID-19 Crisis," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Chen, Shuai & Gong, Binlei, 2021. "Response and adaptation of agriculture to climate change: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    15. Zhoufu Yan & Shurui Zhang & Fangwei Wu & Binlei Gong, 2023. "Increasing Wages, Factor Substitution, and Cropping Pattern Changes in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 190-214, September.
    16. Zhan, Yue & Chen, Kevin Z., 2021. "Building resilient food system amidst COVID-19: Responses and lessons from China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    17. Binlei Gong & Robin C. Sickles, 2021. "Resource allocation in multi-divisional multi-product firms," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 47-70, April.
    18. Nicoleta Valentina Florea & Mircea Constantin Duică & Constantin Aurelian Ionescu & Anișoara Duică & Mihaela Cristina Onica Ibinceanu & Sorina Geanina Stanescu, 2021. "An Analysis of the Influencing Factors of the Romanian Agricultural Output within the Context of Green Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, August.
    19. Jun Zhang & Shenghao Zhao & Chaonan Peng & Xianming Gong, 2022. "Spatial Heterogeneity of the Recovery of Road Traffic Volume from the Impact of COVID-19: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, November.
    20. Lingran Yuan & Shurui Zhang & Shuo Wang & Zesen Qian & Binlei Gong, 2021. "World agricultural convergence," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 135-153, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic impact of epidemics; Agricultural production and productivity; Spatial model and spillovers; Growth accounting; COVID-19; D24; I10; O13; Q10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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