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From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

Author

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  • Felipe Alves
  • Giovanni L. Violante

Abstract

We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with a three-state frictional labour market that is consistent with the empirical evidence that (i) low-skilled workers are more exposed to the business cycle, (ii) displacement leads to long-lasting earnings losses, and (iii) unemployment is a stepping stone toward exit from the labor force. In this environment, a transient contractionary monetary policy shock induces a very persistent reduction in labour force participation and labour productivity, especially among workers at the bottom of the skill distribution. Despite the negative hysteresis on output, the model does not give rise to protracted deflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-39
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy Transmission; Labour Markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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