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A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic

Author

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  • J. H. M. Tah
  • V. Carr

Abstract

The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • J. H. M. Tah & V. Carr, 2000. "A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 491-500.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:18:y:2000:i:4:p:491-500
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190050024905
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    Cited by:

    1. Rao Rao & Xingping Zhang & Zhiping Shi & Kaiyan Luo & Zhongfu Tan & Yifan Feng, 2014. "A Systematical Framework of Schedule Risk Management for Power Grid Engineering Projects’ Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(10), pages 1-30, October.
    2. Abraham Park & Chen Yu Chang, 2013. "Impacts of Construction Events on the Project Equity Value of the Channel Tunnel Project," ERES eres2013_97, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Gu, Shuang & Li, Keping & Feng, Tao & Yan, Dongyang & Liu, Yanyan, 2022. "The prediction of potential risk path in railway traffic events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Usama H. Issa & Ashraf Balabel & Mohammed Abdelhakeem & Medhat M. A. Osman, 2021. "Developing a Risk Model for Assessment and Control of the Spread of COVID-19," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Patricia Romero-Lankao & Daniel M. Gnatz & Joshua B. Sperling, 2016. "Examining urban inequality and vulnerability to enhance resilience: insights from Mumbai, India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 351-365, December.
    6. Philip-Mark Spanidis & Christos Roumpos & Francis Pavloudakis, 2021. "A Fuzzy-AHP Methodology for Planning the Risk Management of Natural Hazards in Surface Mining Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Hasan Mahmoud & Vian Ahmed & Salwa Beheiry, 2021. "Construction Cash Flow Risk Index," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Cunbin Li & Yunqi Liu & Shuke Li, 2016. "Risk Evaluation of Qinghai–Tibet Power Grid Interconnection Project for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Xiao, Zengqi & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2019. "Willingness to take contractual risk in port public-private partnerships under economic volatility: The role of institutional environment in emerging economies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 106-116.
    10. Jelena M. Andrić & Jiayuan Wang & Ruoyu Zhong, 2019. "Identifying the Critical Risks in Railway Projects Based on Fuzzy and Sensitivity Analysis: A Case Study of Belt and Road Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, March.
    11. John Malu Nzioki & Dr. Mary Nyawira Mwenda, 2021. "Enhancing Performance of the Building Construction Industry through Quantitative Risk Analysis and Risk Response: A Case of Exchequer Funded Building Construction Projects in Machakos County, Kenya," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(3), pages 31-39, March.
    12. Jeffrey Kouton & Wilfried Sanogo & Nandi Djomgoue, 2023. "Risk allocation in energy infrastructure PPPs projects in selected African countries: does institutional quality, PPPs experience and income level make a difference?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 537-580, February.
    13. Aleksandar Senić & Momčilo Dobrodolac & Zoran Stojadinović, 2024. "Predicting Extension of Time and Increasing Contract Price in Road Infrastructure Projects Using a Sugeno Fuzzy Logic Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    14. Huiru Zhao & Nana Li, 2015. "Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-30, March.
    15. Usama Issa & Ibrahim Sharaky & Mamdooh Alwetaishi & Ashraf Balabel & Amal Shamseldin & Ahmed Abdelhafiz & Mohammed Al-Surf & Mosleh Al-Harthi & Medhat M. A. Osman, 2021. "Developing and Applying a Model for Evaluating Risks Affecting Greening Existing Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, June.
    16. Ning Wang & Cheng-shun Xu & Xiu-li Du & Ming-ju Zhang, 2018. "A risk assessment method of deep excavation based on Bayesian analysis and expert elicitation," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 9(2), pages 452-466, April.
    17. Sabriye Topal & Emine Atasoylu, 2022. "A Fuzzy Risk Assessment Model for Small Scale Construction Work," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    18. Xiao, Zengqi & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2020. "The impact of institutional conditions on willingness to take contractual risk in port public-private partnerships of developing countries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 12-26.
    19. Seyed Morteza Hatefi & Mohammad Ehsan Basiri & Jolanta Tamošaitienė, 2019. "An Evidential Model for Environmental Risk Assessment in Projects Using Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-16, November.
    20. Gholamreza Dehdasht & Rosli Mohamad Zin & M. Salim Ferwati & Mu’azu Mohammed Abdullahi & Ali Keyvanfar & Ronald McCaffer, 2017. "DEMATEL-ANP Risk Assessment in Oil and Gas Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-24, August.
    21. Wajiha Ansari & Muhammad Asim & Salman Manzoor, 2020. "A systematic frame work of schedule risk management for power grid engineering projects,sustainable development," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 5(1), pages 185-216, March.
    22. Cabrera Llanos, Agustín I. & Ortiz Arango, Francisco & Dávila Aragón, Griselda, 2022. "Caracterización de la productividad de una empresa mexicana desarrolladora de tecnología mediante control difuso [Characterization of the productivity of a Mexican technology development company th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 34(1), pages 281-304, December.
    23. Hani Alyami & Paul Tae-Woo Lee & Zaili Yang & Ramin Riahi & Stephen Bonsall & Jin Wang, 2014. "An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 634-650, December.
    24. Patricia Romero-Lankao & Daniel M. Gnatz & Olga Wilhelmi & Mary Hayden, 2016. "Urban Sustainability and Resilience: From Theory to Practice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-19, November.

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