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Identifying the Critical Risks in Railway Projects Based on Fuzzy and Sensitivity Analysis: A Case Study of Belt and Road Projects

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  • Jelena M. Andrić

    (College of Civil Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China)

  • Jiayuan Wang

    (College of Civil Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China)

  • Ruoyu Zhong

    (China Center for Special Economic Zone Research, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China)

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a Chinese development strategy developed in order to establish connectivity and deepen cooperation between China and other countries, increase trade, and support the socio-economic development of vast regions. A significant number of railway projects are planned to be constructed under BRI since railways are the most efficient means of transportation. This paper investigates the critical risks in railway projects implemented under BRI. In total, 24 potential risks in BRI railway projects are identified and categorized into 6 groups. A questionnaire survey is conducted in order to collect data about the probability of risk occurrence and their impact. To identify the critical risks in railway projects, a novel method based on fuzzy and sensitivity analysis is developed and applied for risk assessment. This method uses a fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach to assess risks and sensitivity analysis as criteria for critical risk identification. The results show that the most critical risks in railway projects are changes in design, design errors, cooperation between China and BRI country, loan risk, complex geological conditions of terrain, and geopolitical risk. The theoretical contribution of this paper is a novel method which combines fuzzy and sensitivity analysis into a single approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelena M. Andrić & Jiayuan Wang & Ruoyu Zhong, 2019. "Identifying the Critical Risks in Railway Projects Based on Fuzzy and Sensitivity Analysis: A Case Study of Belt and Road Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:5:p:1302-:d:210276
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    Cited by:

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    5. Hui Shi & Zhen You & Zhiming Feng & Yanzhao Yang, 2019. "Numerical Simulation and Spatial Distribution of Transportation Accessibility in the Regions Involved in the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Nerdjes Bennani & Samy Mezhoud, 2023. "Risk assessment of several hazards along railway network using AHP incorporated into GIS," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 39(1), pages 452-464, January.
    7. Benz, Lukas & Münch, Christopher & Hartmann, Evi, 2021. "Fuzzy-based decision analysis on Arctic transportation: A guidance for freight shipping companies," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Jahn, Carlos & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Adapting to the Future: Maritime and City Logistics in the Context of Digitalization and Sustainability. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conf, volume 32, pages 375-400, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    8. Agnieszka Bekisz & Magdalena Kowacka & Michał Kruszyński & Dominika Dudziak-Gajowiak & Grzegorz Debita, 2022. "Risk Management Using Network Thinking Methodology on the Example of Rail Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-19, July.

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