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Developing a Risk Model for Assessment and Control of the Spread of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Usama H. Issa

    (Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia)

  • Ashraf Balabel

    (Mechanical Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia)

  • Mohammed Abdelhakeem

    (Clinical Pathology Department, Minia University Hospitals, Minia University, Minia 61519, Egypt)

  • Medhat M. A. Osman

    (Architectural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Minia University, Minia 61519, Egypt)

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to spread rapidly all over the world challenging nearly all governments. The exact nature of COVID-19’s spread and risk factors for such a rapid spread are still imprecise as available data depend on confirmed cases only. This may result in an asymmetrically distributed burden among countries. There is an urgent need for developing a new technique or model to identify and analyze risk factors affecting such a spread. Fuzzy logic appears to be suitable for dealing with multi-risk groups with undefined data. The main purpose of this research was to develop a risk analysis model for COVID-19’s spread evaluation. Other objectives included identifying such risk factors aiming to find out reasons for such a fast spread. Nine risk groups were identified and 46 risk factors were categorized under these groups. The methodology in this study depended on identifying each risk factor by its probability of occurrence and its impact on viruses spreading. Many logical rules were used to support the proposed risk analysis model and represented the relation between probabilities and impacts as well as to connect other risk factors. The model was verified and applied in Saudi Arabia with further probable use in similar conditions. Based on the model results, it was found that (daily activities) and (home isolation) are considered groups with highest risk. On the other hand, many risk factors were categorized with high severity such as (poor social distance), (crowdedness) and (poor personal hygiene practices). It was demonstrated that the impact of COVID-19’s spread was found with a positive correlation with the risk factors’ impact, while there was no association between probability of occurrence and impact of the risk factors on COVID-19’s spread. Saudi Arabia’s quick actions have greatly reduced the impact of the risks affecting COVID-19’s spread. Finally, the new model can be applied easily in most countries to help decision makers in evaluating and controlling COVID-19’s spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Usama H. Issa & Ashraf Balabel & Mohammed Abdelhakeem & Medhat M. A. Osman, 2021. "Developing a Risk Model for Assessment and Control of the Spread of COVID-19," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:38-:d:496190
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ndaïrou, Faïçal & Area, Iván & Nieto, Juan J. & Torres, Delfim F.M., 2020. "Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
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    3. J. H. M. Tah & V. Carr, 2000. "A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 491-500.
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