IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v9y2021i2p38-d496190.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developing a Risk Model for Assessment and Control of the Spread of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Usama H. Issa

    (Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia)

  • Ashraf Balabel

    (Mechanical Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia)

  • Mohammed Abdelhakeem

    (Clinical Pathology Department, Minia University Hospitals, Minia University, Minia 61519, Egypt)

  • Medhat M. A. Osman

    (Architectural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Minia University, Minia 61519, Egypt)

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to spread rapidly all over the world challenging nearly all governments. The exact nature of COVID-19’s spread and risk factors for such a rapid spread are still imprecise as available data depend on confirmed cases only. This may result in an asymmetrically distributed burden among countries. There is an urgent need for developing a new technique or model to identify and analyze risk factors affecting such a spread. Fuzzy logic appears to be suitable for dealing with multi-risk groups with undefined data. The main purpose of this research was to develop a risk analysis model for COVID-19’s spread evaluation. Other objectives included identifying such risk factors aiming to find out reasons for such a fast spread. Nine risk groups were identified and 46 risk factors were categorized under these groups. The methodology in this study depended on identifying each risk factor by its probability of occurrence and its impact on viruses spreading. Many logical rules were used to support the proposed risk analysis model and represented the relation between probabilities and impacts as well as to connect other risk factors. The model was verified and applied in Saudi Arabia with further probable use in similar conditions. Based on the model results, it was found that (daily activities) and (home isolation) are considered groups with highest risk. On the other hand, many risk factors were categorized with high severity such as (poor social distance), (crowdedness) and (poor personal hygiene practices). It was demonstrated that the impact of COVID-19’s spread was found with a positive correlation with the risk factors’ impact, while there was no association between probability of occurrence and impact of the risk factors on COVID-19’s spread. Saudi Arabia’s quick actions have greatly reduced the impact of the risks affecting COVID-19’s spread. Finally, the new model can be applied easily in most countries to help decision makers in evaluating and controlling COVID-19’s spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Usama H. Issa & Ashraf Balabel & Mohammed Abdelhakeem & Medhat M. A. Osman, 2021. "Developing a Risk Model for Assessment and Control of the Spread of COVID-19," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:38-:d:496190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/2/38/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/2/38/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aldila, Dipo & Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H.A. & Safitri, Egi & Anwar, Yusril Rais & Bakry, Aanisah R.Q. & Samiadji, Brenda M. & Anugerah, Demas A. & GH, M. Farhan Alfarizi & Ayulani, Indri D. & Salim, Sheryl N, 2020. "A mathematical study on the spread of COVID-19 considering social distancing and rapid assessment: The case of Jakarta, Indonesia," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. J. H. M. Tah & V. Carr, 2000. "A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 491-500.
    3. Ndaïrou, Faïçal & Area, Iván & Nieto, Juan J. & Torres, Delfim F.M., 2020. "Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masum, Mohammad & Masud, M.A. & Adnan, Muhaiminul Islam & Shahriar, Hossain & Kim, Sangil, 2022. "Comparative study of a mathematical epidemic model, statistical modeling, and deep learning for COVID-19 forecasting and management," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Basnarkov, Lasko, 2021. "SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "Dynamic tracking with model-based forecasting for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Aleksandar Senić & Momčilo Dobrodolac & Zoran Stojadinović, 2024. "Predicting Extension of Time and Increasing Contract Price in Road Infrastructure Projects Using a Sugeno Fuzzy Logic Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Mishra, A.M. & Purohit, S.D. & Owolabi, K.M. & Sharma, Y.D., 2020. "A nonlinear epidemiological model considering asymptotic and quarantine classes for SARS CoV-2 virus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Hani Alyami & Paul Tae-Woo Lee & Zaili Yang & Ramin Riahi & Stephen Bonsall & Jin Wang, 2014. "An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 634-650, December.
    8. Memon, Zaibunnisa & Qureshi, Sania & Memon, Bisharat Rasool, 2021. "Assessing the role of quarantine and isolation as control strategies for COVID-19 outbreak: A case study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Amaral, Marco A. & Oliveira, Marcelo M. de & Javarone, Marco A., 2021. "An epidemiological model with voluntary quarantine strategies governed by evolutionary game dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Ullah, Mohammad Sharif & Higazy, M. & Kabir, K.M. Ariful, 2022. "Dynamic analysis of mean-field and fractional-order epidemic vaccination strategies by evolutionary game approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Nur Hannani Bi Rahman & Shazmin Shareena A. Azis & Ibrahim Sipan, 2021. "COVID-19: Standard Operating Procedure Improvement For Green Office Building Using Indoor Environmental Quality," LARES lares-2021-4dqg, Latin American Real Estate Society (LARES).
    12. Rafiq, Danish & Suhail, Suhail Ahmad & Bazaz, Mohammad Abid, 2020. "Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Faïçal Ndaïrou & Iván Area & Delfim F. M. Torres, 2020. "Mathematical Modeling of Japanese Encephalitis under Aquatic Environmental Effects," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-14, October.
    14. Swapnarekha, H. & Behera, Himansu Sekhar & Nayak, Janmenjoy & Naik, Bighnaraj, 2020. "Role of intelligent computing in COVID-19 prognosis: A state-of-the-art review," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Yang, Chao & Wan, Zhiyang & Yuan, Quan & Zhou, Yang & Sun, Maopeng, 2023. "Travel before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic: Exploring factors in essential travel using empirical data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Li, Tingting & Guo, Youming, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for Omicron strain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    17. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stoeckli & Sebastian C. Binder & Tanmay Mitra & Berit Lange & Stefan Lautenbacher & Andreas Peichl & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Clemens Fuest & , 2023. "The common interests of health protection and the economy: evidence from scenario calculations of COVID-19 containment policies," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 67-74, February.
    18. Aldila, Dipo & Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H.A. & Safitri, Egi & Anwar, Yusril Rais & Bakry, Aanisah R.Q. & Samiadji, Brenda M. & Anugerah, Demas A. & GH, M. Farhan Alfarizi & Ayulani, Indri D. & Salim, Sheryl N, 2020. "A mathematical study on the spread of COVID-19 considering social distancing and rapid assessment: The case of Jakarta, Indonesia," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Gholamreza Dehdasht & Rosli Mohamad Zin & M. Salim Ferwati & Mu’azu Mohammed Abdullahi & Ali Keyvanfar & Ronald McCaffer, 2017. "DEMATEL-ANP Risk Assessment in Oil and Gas Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-24, August.
    20. Patricia Romero-Lankao & Daniel M. Gnatz & Olga Wilhelmi & Mary Hayden, 2016. "Urban Sustainability and Resilience: From Theory to Practice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-19, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:38-:d:496190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.