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Structural Versus Reduced-Form Estimation of Optimal Stopping Problems

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  • Bill Provencher

Abstract

In this paper I examine several statistical, interpretive, and policy implications of reduced-form (probit or logit) estimation of optimal stopping problems. The discussion proceeds in the context of an examination of the timber harvest decision of nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners. For a large class of optimal stopping problems a reduced-form model which closely approximates the statistical performance of its structural counterpart is readily found. Still, failure to properly interpret the relationship between the reduced-form model and the underlying optimal stopping problem invites flawed econometric analysis and inappropriate interpretation of reduced-form coefficients. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.

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  • Bill Provencher, 1997. "Structural Versus Reduced-Form Estimation of Optimal Stopping Problems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 357-368.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:79:y:1997:i:2:p:357-368
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    Cited by:

    1. Marielle Brunette & Jérôme Foncel & Nazindigouba Eric Kéré, 2014. "Attitude towards Risk and Production Decision: An Empirical analysis on French private forest owners," Working Papers halshs-00981350, HAL.
    2. Goldman, Matt & Rao, Justin M., 2017. "Optimal stopping in the NBA: Sequential search and the shot clock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 107-124.
    3. Gregory, S. Amacher & Christine Conway, M. & Sullivan, Jay & Gregory, S. Amacher, 2003. "Econometric analyses of nonindustrial forest landowners: Is there anything left to study?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164.
    4. Wear, David N. & Coulston, John W., 2024. "A Comparative Analysis of Forest Harvesting, Timber Supply, and Tree Planting across Regions of the United States," RFF Working Paper Series 24-09, Resources for the Future.
    5. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver & Huettel, Silke, 2003. "Empirische Validierung von Realoptionsmodellen," Working Paper Series 18825, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    6. Hicks, Robert L. & Schnier, Kurt E., 2006. "A Spatial Model of Dolphin Avoidance in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21290, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Sun, Xing & Zhang, Daowei, 2020. "A theoretical and empirical analysis of joint forest production: Timber supply and amenity services," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Pietola, Kyosti & Vare, Minna & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M., 2002. "Farmers' Exit Decisions and Early Retirement Programs in Finland," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24825, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Eric Nazindigouba KERE & Jérôme FONCEL & Marielle BRUNETTE, 2014. "Attitude towards Risk and Production Decision: An Empirical analysis on French private forest owners," Working Papers 201410, CERDI.
    10. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2022. "Farmland sales under returns and price uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Yoo, Do-il, 2012. "Individual and Social Learning in Bio-technology Adoption: The Case of GM Corn in the U.S," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124975, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Finigan, Duncan & Mills, Brian M. & Stone, Daniel F., 2020. "Pulling starters," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Raushan Bokusheva & Lajos Baráth, 2024. "State‐contingent production technology formulation: Identifying states of nature using reduced‐form econometric models of crop yield," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(2), pages 805-827, March.
    14. Kim, Taek Joo & Wear, David N. & Coulston, John & Li, Ruhong, 2018. "Forest land use responses to wood product markets," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 45-52.
    15. Newman, D.H., 2002. "Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-27.
    16. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver & Utesch, Volker, 2004. "Der Wechsel vom konventionellen zum ökologischen Landbau: Eine investitionstheoretische Betrachtung," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 53(06), pages 1-10.
    17. Jan Hinrichs & Oliver Musshoff & Martin Odening, 2008. "Economic hysteresis in hog production," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 333-340.
    18. Hicks, Robert L. & Schnier, Kurt E., 2008. "Eco-labeling and dolphin avoidance: A dynamic model of tuna fishing in the Eastern Tropical Pacific," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 103-116, September.

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