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Closing down the Farm: An Experimental Analysis of Disinvestment Timing

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  • Maart, Syster Christin
  • Musshoff, Oliver
  • Odening, Martin
  • Schade, Christian

Abstract

Agrarian structures are often characterized by some kind of economic inertia. It is particularly puzzling why unprofitable farms persist over time instead of being sold. In this paper we analyze the exit decision of farmers using the real options approach. The validity of the real options theory is assessed by means of laboratory experiments. Our results show that real options models are able to predict actual disinvestment decisions better than traditional investment theory. Nevertheless, the observed disinvestment reluctance was even more pronounced as predicted by theory. This finding suggests the inclusion of bounded rationality into normative disinvestment models.

Suggested Citation

  • Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Schade, Christian, 2011. "Closing down the Farm: An Experimental Analysis of Disinvestment Timing," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114375, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114375
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.114375
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Burmeister, Katrin & Schade, Christian, 2007. "Are entrepreneurs' decisions more biased? An experimental investigation of the susceptibility to status quo bias," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 340-362, May.
    7. Turvey, Calum G., 2002. "Can Hysteresis And Real Options Explain The Farmland Valuation Puzzle?," Working Papers 34131, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    8. Brian E. Roe & David R. Just, 2009. "Internal and External Validity in Economics Research: Tradeoffs between Experiments, Field Experiments, Natural Experiments, and Field Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1266-1271.
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    10. Martin Odening & Oliver Mußhoff & Alfons Balmann, 2005. "Investment decisions in hog finishing: an application of the real options approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 47-60, January.
    11. Richards, Timothy J. & Green, Gareth P., 2003. "Economic Hysteresis in Variety Selection," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Richards, Timothy J. & Green, Gareth P., 2003. "Economic Hysteresis in Variety Selection," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Farm Management;

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