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Land Conversion Pace under Uncertainty and Irreversibility: too fast or too slow?

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Di Corato

    (Department of Economics, SLU)

  • Michele Moretto

    (Department of Economics, University of Padova, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro Studi Levi-Cases)

  • Sergio Vergalli

    (Department of Economics, University of Brescia, and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

Abstract

In this paper stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate land conversion decisions taken by a multitude of landholders under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversible development. We study land conversion under competition on the market for agricultural products when voluntary and mandatory measures are combined by the Government to induce adequate participation in a conservation plan. We study the impact of uncertainty on the optimal conversion policy and discuss conversion dynamics under different policy scenarios on the basis of the relative long-run expected rate of deforestation. Interestingly, we show that uncertainty, even if it induces conversion postponement in the short-run, increases the average rate of deforestation and reduces expected time for total conversion in the long run. Finally, we illustrate our findings through some numerical simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Di Corato & Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Land Conversion Pace under Uncertainty and Irreversibility: too fast or too slow?," Working Papers 2011.84, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.84
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    Cited by:

    1. Giacomo Corneo & Sergio Vergalli, 2013. "Editorial: The economics of irreversible choices," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 1-3, September.
    2. Di Corato, Luca & Maoz, Yishay D., 2019. "Production externalities and investment caps: A welfare analysis under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Simone Borghesi & Giorgia Giovannetti & Gianluca Iannucci & Paolo Russu, 2019. "The Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investments in Land and Pollution Accumulation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 135-154, January.
    4. Adriana Piazza & Bernardo Pagnoncelli, 2015. "The stochastic Mitra–Wan forestry model: risk neutral and risk averse cases," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 175-194, June.
    5. Luca Corato & Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2013. "Land conversion pace under uncertainty and irreversibility: too fast or too slow?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 45-82, September.
    6. Di Corato, Luca & Gazheli, Ardjan & Lagerkvist, Carl-Johan, 2013. "Investing in energy forestry under uncertainty," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 56-64.
    7. Younghyeon Jeon & Byeong-il Ahn, 2017. "Effects of a Tariff Reduction on Grain Self-Sufficiency: Evidence from Country-Level Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-14, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal Stopping; Deforestation; Payments for Environmental Services; Natural Resources Management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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