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Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

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  • Ling Zhang
  • Zhuotong Nan
  • Yi Xu
  • Shuo Li

Abstract

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Ling Zhang & Zhuotong Nan & Yi Xu & Shuo Li, 2016. "Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0158394
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158394
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    1. Juan Li & Xunzhou Chunyu & Feng Huang, 2022. "Land Use Pattern Changes and the Driving Forces in the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Fengshou Li & Kai Liu & Huanli Tang & Lin Liu & Hongxing Liu, 2018. "Analyzing Trends of Dike-Ponds between 1978 and 2016 Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing Images in Shunde District of South China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-27, September.
    3. Junjie Yan & Guangpeng Zhang & Xiaoya Deng & Hongbo Ling & Hailiang Xu & Bin Guo, 2019. "Does Climate Change or Human Activity Lead to the Degradation in the Grassland Ecosystem in a Mountain-Basin System in an Arid Region of China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Xue, Jingyuan & Huo, Zailin & Kisekka, Isaya, 2021. "Assessing impacts of climate variability and changing cropping patterns on regional evapotranspiration, yield and water productivity in California’s San Joaquin watershed," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    5. Vitus Tankpa & Li Wang & Alfred Awotwi & Leelamber Singh & Samit Thapa & Raphael Ane Atanga & Xiaomeng Guo, 2021. "Modeling the effects of historical and future land use/land cover change dynamics on the hydrological response of Ashi watershed, northeastern China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7883-7912, May.
    6. Wondie Zelalem & Erke Asmare & Dereje Tewab & Brehan Mohamed, 2017. "Monitoring and Evaluation of Stocked WaterBodies for Fish Production and their EcologicalStatus; the Case of Gomit and Selameko Reservoirs," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 4(5), pages 144-152, - Septemb.
    7. Yuepeng Liu & Chuanfeng Yang & Xinyang Yu & Mengwen Wang & Wei Qi, 2021. "Monitoring the Landscape Pattern and Characteristics of Non-Point Source Pollution in a Mountainous River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-15, October.
    8. Mudassar Iqbal & Jun Wen & Muhammad Masood & Muhammad Umer Masood & Muhammad Adnan, 2022. "Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Hydrological Processes of the Source Region of Yellow River, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    9. Maryam Abbaszadeh & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Rasool Mahdavi & Elham Rafiei Sardooi & Sajad Jamshidi, 2023. "Modeling Future Hydrological Characteristics Based on Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Changes Using the SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 4177-4194, August.
    10. Wickramasinghe, M.R.C.P. & Dayawansa, N.D.K. & Jayasiri, M.M.J.G.C.N. & De Silva, Ranjith Premalal, 2023. "A study on external pressures of an ancient irrigation cascade system in Sri Lanka," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    11. Chong Wei & Xiaohua Dong & Yaoming Ma & Wenyi Zhao & Dan Yu & Muhammad Tayyab & Huijuan Bo, 2022. "Impacts of Land Use Types, Soil Properties, and Topography on Baseflow Recharge and Prediction in an Agricultural Watershed," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Zafar Iqbal & Shamsuddin Shahid & Tarmizi Ismail & Zulfaqar Sa’adi & Aitazaz Farooque & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2022. "Distributed Hydrological Model Based on Machine Learning Algorithm: Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Floods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, May.
    13. Peng Qi & Guangxin Zhang & Yi Jun Xu & Zhikun Xia & Ming Wang, 2019. "Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-21, October.
    14. Qin Ma & Xiaojun Yao & Cong Zhang & Chen Yang & Kang Yang & Zhijuan Tian & Jiawei Li, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Terminal Lakes in the Hexi Interior, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.

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