Climate change impact assessment on the water resources of the Upper Yamuna River Basin in India

Climate change has ability to intensify the magnitude of flood and drought episodes, as well as their amplitude; also it has the potential to exacerbate hydrological extremes. It is crucial to forecast changes to hydrological regimes and determine the level of uncertainty around them to increase resilience and prepare for future changes. In order to enlighten long-term estimates, an attempt has been made to sustain the available water resources through Calibration and Validation of river discharge data using SWAT model for Upper Yamuna River Basin. Spatial climatic data were further crystallized to forecast climatic projection scenarios for Base line period, Mid-Century and End Century considering RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Result reveals that the average annual minimum temperature is estimated to be increased 1.4 °C in Mid-Century and 2.2 °C in End Century from the Base line Scenario while the average annual maximum temperature is found to be increased 1.5 °C in Mid-Century and 2.1 °C in End Century from the Base line Scenario. Further, while analyzing the hydrological components, Soil water percentage is expected to be increased in Mid-Century, whereas Percolation rate is found to be increased for all scenarios other than BL-MC (4.5) which is an indication of rise in Ground water. In addition to it, Surface flow is observed as a considerable increase from 4.33 to 72.69% in all scenarios. Also the Surface flow is more in case of End Century as compared to the Mid-Century. The estimated Ground water flow is found to be increased except BL-MC (4.5 & 8.5). Overall water yield has been estimated as a relative change from 7.06 to 18.70% based upon the specified conditions. The prediction for Evapotranspiration values is found as decreased in all scenarios except BL-MC (4.5 & 8.5). The outcome of the present study is very useful for planning of development strategies in the project area.