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River Stage Forecasting Using Multiple Additive Regression Trees

Author

Listed:
  • Jin-Cheng Fu

    (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction)

  • Hsiao-Yun Huang

    (Fu Jen Catholic University)

  • Jiun-Huei Jang

    (National Cheng Kung University)

  • Pei-Hsun Huang

    (National Cheng Kung University)

Abstract

Accurate real-time forecasts of river stages can serve as a reference for flood evacuation to minimize losses and casualties. Machine learning has been widely used for river stage forecasting because of its simple modeling and quick computation. However, many machine learning models have drawbacks such as excessive learning time, difficult evaluation of input variables, and lack of explanatory capacity, which limit their performance as practical tools. To overcome these drawbacks, this study employs multiple additive regression trees (MART) for river stage forecasting. Three MART models are proposed, namely the original MART model, the real-time MART model, and the naïve MART model, with different considerations of model training and error correction. Model training and testing were conducted based on the rainfall and river stage data for 16 typhoon events between 2005 and 2009 in the Bazhang River Basin in Taiwan. In the training process, variables are automatically selected by the MART models which reasonably describes the mechanism of flood transportation. The testing results show that all three models can reasonably forecast the river stages with a three-hour lead-time. Compared with the original MART, the real-time MART performs better in describing overall river stage variations, whereas the naïve MART is more accurate in the prediction of peak river stages. The proposed MART models are efficient and accurate and can thus serve as practical tools for flash flood early warning.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin-Cheng Fu & Hsiao-Yun Huang & Jiun-Huei Jang & Pei-Hsun Huang, 2019. "River Stage Forecasting Using Multiple Additive Regression Trees," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4491-4507, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02357-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02357-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaydip Makwana & Mukesh Tiwari, 2014. "Intermittent Streamflow Forecasting and Extreme Event Modelling using Wavelet based Artificial Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4857-4873, October.
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    3. Youngmin Seo & Sungwon Kim & Ozgur Kisi & Vijay P. Singh & Kamban Parasuraman, 2016. "River Stage Forecasting Using Wavelet Packet Decomposition and Machine Learning Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(11), pages 4011-4035, September.
    4. S. Aggarwal & Arun Goel & Vijay Singh, 2012. "Stage and Discharge Forecasting by SVM and ANN Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(13), pages 3705-3724, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiun-Huei Jang & Petr Vohnicky & Yen-Lien Kuo, 2021. "Improvement of Flood Risk Analysis Via Downscaling of Hazard and Vulnerability Maps," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2215-2230, May.
    2. Jiun-Huei Jang & Kun-Fang Lee & Jin-Cheng Fu, 2022. "Improving River-Stage Forecasting Using Hybrid Models Based on the Combination of Multiple Additive Regression Trees and Runge–Kutta Schemes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 1123-1140, February.
    3. Saeed Azimi & Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam, 2020. "Modeling Short Term Rainfall Forecast Using Neural Networks, and Gaussian Process Classification Based on the SPI Drought Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1369-1405, March.
    4. Ana C. Cebrián & Ricardo Salillas, 2021. "Forecasting High-Frequency River Level Series Using Double Switching Regression with ARMA Errors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 299-313, January.
    5. Siva R Venna & Satya Katragadda & Vijay Raghavan & Raju Gottumukkala, 2021. "River Stage Forecasting using Enhanced Partial Correlation Graph," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4111-4126, September.

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