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Learning from Multiple Models Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Model Prediction Accuracies: Application to River Flows

Author

Listed:
  • M. A. Ghorbani

    (University of Tabriz
    Near East University)

  • R. Khatibi

    (GTEV-ReX Limited)

  • V. Karimi

    (University of Tabriz)

  • Zaher Mundher Yaseen

    (Ton Duc Thang University)

  • M. Zounemat-Kermani

    (Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman)

Abstract

An investigation is presented in this paper to study the performance of Artificial Intelligence running Multiple Models (AIMM) using time series of river flows. This is a modelling strategy, which is formed by first running two Artificial Intelligence (AI) models: Support Vector Machine (SVM) and its hybrid with the Fire-Fly Algorithm (FFA) and they both form supervised learning at Level 1. The outputs of Level 1 models serve as inputs to another AI Model at Level 2. The AIMM strategy at Level 2 is run by Artificial Neural Network (MM-ANN) and this is compared with the Simple Averaging (MM-SA) of both inputs. The study of the performances of these models (SVM, SVM-FFA, MM-SA and MM-ANN) in the paper shows that the ability of SVM-FFA in matching observed values is significantly better than that of SVM and that of MM-ANN is considerably better than each SVM and/or SVM-FFA but the performances are deteriorated by using the MM-SA strategy. The results also show that the residuals of MM-ANN are less noisy than those shown by the models at Level 1 and those at Level 2 do not display any trend.

Suggested Citation

  • M. A. Ghorbani & R. Khatibi & V. Karimi & Zaher Mundher Yaseen & M. Zounemat-Kermani, 2018. "Learning from Multiple Models Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Model Prediction Accuracies: Application to River Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(13), pages 4201-4215, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2038-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2038-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tao Xiong & Yukun Bao & Zhongyi Hu, 2014. "Multiple-output support vector regression with a firefly algorithm for interval-valued stock price index forecasting," Papers 1401.1916, arXiv.org.
    2. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    3. Rubio, Ginés & Pomares, Héctor & Rojas, Ignacio & Herrera, Luis Javier, 2011. "A heuristic method for parameter selection in LS-SVM: Application to time series prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 725-739, July.
    4. Gokmen Tayfur & Ata Nadiri & Asghar Moghaddam, 2014. "Supervised Intelligent Committee Machine Method for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1173-1184, March.
    5. Rubio, Ginés & Pomares, Héctor & Rojas, Ignacio & Herrera, Luis Javier, 2011. "A heuristic method for parameter selection in LS-SVM: Application to time series prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 725-739.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khabat Khosravi & Ali Golkarian & John P. Tiefenbacher, 2022. "Using Optimized Deep Learning to Predict Daily Streamflow: A Comparison to Common Machine Learning Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 699-716, January.
    2. Vijendra Kumar & Naresh Kedam & Kul Vaibhav Sharma & Khaled Mohamed Khedher & Ayed Eid Alluqmani, 2023. "A Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Predicting Rainfall in Urban Metropolitan Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-27, September.
    3. Mehdi Jamei & Mumtaz Ali & Anurag Malik & Ramendra Prasad & Shahab Abdulla & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2022. "Forecasting Daily Flood Water Level Using Hybrid Advanced Machine Learning Based Time-Varying Filtered Empirical Mode Decomposition Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4637-4676, September.
    4. Subbarayan Saravanan & Nagireddy Masthan Reddy & Quoc Bao Pham & Abdullah Alodah & Hazem Ghassan Abdo & Hussein Almohamad & Ahmed Abdullah Al Dughairi, 2023. "Machine Learning Approaches for Streamflow Modeling in the Godavari Basin with CMIP6 Dataset," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-26, August.
    5. Jin-Cheng Fu & Hsiao-Yun Huang & Jiun-Huei Jang & Pei-Hsun Huang, 2019. "River Stage Forecasting Using Multiple Additive Regression Trees," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4491-4507, October.

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