IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v36y2022i10d10.1007_s11269-022-03220-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Hybrid Model Integrating Elman Neural Network with Variational Mode Decomposition and Box–Cox Transformation for Monthly Runoff Time Series Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Fangqin Zhang

    (Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University)

  • Yan Kang

    (Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University)

  • Xiao Cheng

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Peiru Chen

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Songbai Song

    (Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University)

Abstract

Precise and reliable monthly runoff prediction plays a vital role in the optimal management of water resources, but the nonstationarity and skewness of monthly runoff time series can pose major challenges for developing appropriate prediction models. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel hybrid prediction model by introducing variational mode decomposition (VMD) and Box–Cox transformation (BC) into the Elman neural network (Elman), named the VMD-BC-Elman model. First, the observed runoff is decomposed into sub-time series using VMD for better frequency resolution. Second, the input datasets are transformed into a normal distribution using Box–Cox, and as a result, skewedness in the data is removed, and the correlation between the input and output variables is enhanced. The proposed VMD-BC preprocessing technology is expected to overcome the problems arising from nonstationary and skewed runoff data. Finally, Elman is used to simulate the respective sub-time series. The proposed model is evaluated using monthly runoff time series at Zhangjiashan, Zhuangtou and Huaxian hydrological stations in the Wei River Basin in China. The model performances are compared with those of single models (SVM, Elman), decomposition-based (VMD-SVM, VMD-Elman et al.) and BC-based models (BC-SVM and BC-Elman) by employing four metrics. The results show that the hybrid models outperform single models, and the VMD-BC-Elman model performs best in all considered hybrid models with an NSE greater than 0.95, R greater than 0.98, NMSE less than 4.7%, and PBIAS less than 0.4% in both the training and testing periods. The study indicates that the VMD-BC-Elman model is a satisfactory data-driven approach to predict nonstationary and skewed monthly runoff time series, representing an effective tool for predicting monthly runoff series.

Suggested Citation

  • Fangqin Zhang & Yan Kang & Xiao Cheng & Peiru Chen & Songbai Song, 2022. "A Hybrid Model Integrating Elman Neural Network with Variational Mode Decomposition and Box–Cox Transformation for Monthly Runoff Time Series Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3673-3697, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03220-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03220-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-022-03220-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-022-03220-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xinxin He & Jungang Luo & Ganggang Zuo & Jiancang Xie, 2019. "Daily Runoff Forecasting Using a Hybrid Model Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Deep Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1571-1590, March.
    2. Lei Zou & Jun Xia & Dunxian She, 2018. "Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Hydrological Drought: a Case Study in the Wei River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1421-1438, March.
    3. S. Aggarwal & Arun Goel & Vijay Singh, 2012. "Stage and Discharge Forecasting by SVM and ANN Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(13), pages 3705-3724, October.
    4. Hui Li & Bangji Fan & Rong Jia & Fang Zhai & Liang Bai & Xingqi Luo, 2020. "Research on Multi-Domain Fault Diagnosis of Gearbox of Wind Turbine Based on Adaptive Variational Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Biao Li & Pengfei Wang & Peng Sun & Rui Meng & Jun Zeng & Guanghui Liu, 2023. "A Model for Determining the Optimal Decommissioning Interval of Energy Equipment Based on the Whole Life Cycle Cost," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Xiao Li & Liping Zhang & Sidong Zeng & Zhenyu Tang & Lina Liu & Qin Zhang & Zhengyang Tang & Xiaojun Hua, 2022. "Predicting Monthly Runoff of the Upper Yangtze River Based on Multiple Machine Learning Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-23, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yani Lian & Jungang Luo & Jingmin Wang & Ganggang Zuo & Na Wei, 2022. "Climate-driven Model Based on Long Short-Term Memory and Bayesian Optimization for Multi-day-ahead Daily Streamflow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(1), pages 21-37, January.
    2. Siyu Yue & Huaien Li & Fengmin Song, 2023. "Temporal–Spatial Variations in the Economic Value Produced by Environmental Flows in a Water Shortage Area in Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Menghao Wang & Shanhu Jiang & Liliang Ren & Chong-Yu Xu & Linyong Wei & Hao Cui & Fei Yuan & Yi Liu & Xiaoli Yang, 2022. "The Development of a Nonstationary Standardised Streamflow Index Using Climate and Reservoir Indices as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1377-1392, March.
    4. Lili Wang & Yanlong Guo & Manhong Fan, 2022. "Improving Annual Streamflow Prediction by Extracting Information from High-frequency Components of Streamflow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4535-4555, September.
    5. Manish Kumar & Anuradha Kumari & Daniel Prakash Kushwaha & Pravendra Kumar & Anurag Malik & Rawshan Ali & Alban Kuriqi, 2020. "Estimation of Daily Stage–Discharge Relationship by Using Data-Driven Techniques of a Perennial River, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-21, September.
    6. Wenxin Xu & Jie Chen & Xunchang J. Zhang, 2022. "Scale Effects of the Monthly Streamflow Prediction Using a State-of-the-art Deep Learning Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3609-3625, August.
    7. Shuang Zhang & Shaobo Liu & Qikang Zhong & Kai Zhu & Hongpeng Fu, 2024. "Assessing Eco-Environmental Effects and Its Impacts Mechanisms in the Mountainous City: Insights from Ecological–Production–Living Spaces Using Machine Learning Models in Chongqing," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-24, August.
    8. Fereshteh Modaresi & Shahab Araghinejad, 2014. "A Comparative Assessment of Support Vector Machines, Probabilistic Neural Networks, and K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithms for Water Quality Classification," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4095-4111, September.
    9. Len Gelman & Krzysztof Soliński & Andrew Ball, 2021. "Novel Instantaneous Wavelet Bicoherence for Vibration Fault Detection in Gear Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Anurag Malik & Anil Kumar & Rajesh P. Singh, 2019. "Application of Heuristic Approaches for Prediction of Hydrological Drought Using Multi-scalar Streamflow Drought Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(11), pages 3985-4006, September.
    11. Okan Mert Katipoğlu, 2023. "Prediction of Streamflow Drought Index for Short-Term Hydrological Drought in the Semi-Arid Yesilirmak Basin Using Wavelet Transform and Artificial Intelligence Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, January.
    12. Jiang, Hongyan & Cheng, Feng & Wu, Cong & Fang, Dianjun & Zeng, Yuhai, 2024. "A multi-period-sequential-index combination method for short-term prediction of small sample data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    13. Jin-Cheng Fu & Hsiao-Yun Huang & Jiun-Huei Jang & Pei-Hsun Huang, 2019. "River Stage Forecasting Using Multiple Additive Regression Trees," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4491-4507, October.
    14. Bao-Jian Li & Guo-Liang Sun & Yan Liu & Wen-Chuan Wang & Xu-Dong Huang, 2022. "Monthly Runoff Forecasting Using Variational Mode Decomposition Coupled with Gray Wolf Optimizer-Based Long Short-term Memory Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 2095-2115, April.
    15. Alan de Gois Barbosa & Alcigeimes B. Celeste & Ludmilson Abritta Mendes, 2021. "Influence of Inflow Nonstationarity on the Multipurpose Optimal Operation of Hydropower Plants Using Nonlinear Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2343-2367, June.
    16. Neeta Nandgude & T. P. Singh & Sachin Nandgude & Mukesh Tiwari, 2023. "Drought Prediction: A Comprehensive Review of Different Drought Prediction Models and Adopted Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, July.
    17. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi, 2018. "A Non-Stationary Reconnaissance Drought Index (NRDI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2611-2624, June.
    18. Hui Hu & Jianfeng Zhang & Tao Li, 2021. "A Novel Hybrid Decompose-Ensemble Strategy with a VMD-BPNN Approach for Daily Streamflow Estimating," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(15), pages 5119-5138, December.
    19. Fang-Fang Li & Han Cao & Chun-Feng Hao & Jun Qiu, 2021. "Daily Streamflow Forecasting Based on Flow Pattern Recognition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4601-4620, October.
    20. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03220-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.