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Rainfall-Runoff Prediction Using Dynamic Typhoon Information and Surface Weather Characteristic Considering Monsoon Effects

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  • Chih-Chiang Wei

    (National Taiwan Ocean University)

  • Nien-Sheng Hsu

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Chien-Lin Huang

    (National Taiwan University)

Abstract

In meteorology and engineering, the prediction of quantitative precipitation and streamflow during typhoon events is a vital research topic. In Southern Taiwan, typhoons often occur in the summer. The interaction between the typhoon circulation and southwesterly monsoon flow frequently transports abundant moisture into Southern Taiwan leading to the substantial pouring rains. This study proposes a rainfall-runoff prediction methodology for addressing the complicated inflow forecasts of southwest monsoon rainfall during typhoons in the upper Tsengwen River in Southern Taiwan. This paper is novel in that it incorporates various data types (reservoir inflows, watershed rainfalls, typhoon information, and ground-weather characteristics) that were applied as model inputs. The most frequently used support vector regressions were employed to construct the rainfall-runoff models on the basis of three designed data combination scenarios. Typhoons Kalmaegi (2008), Fung-wong (2008), Jangmi (2008), and Morakot (2009) were used as validation typhoons. The model cases, involving lead times of 1 h to 6 h, were evaluated. Six performance criteria were used in the three scenarios to highlight the scenario capable of identifying the optimal performance level. In addition, this study compared the error rates between accumulation observations and accumulation predictions. The results showed that Scenario 3, which considered typhoon information and ground-weather characteristics simultaneously, had superior watershed rainfall and runoff predictions to those of the other scenarios. Thus, this study demonstrated the feasibility of using the proposed methodology to increase the accuracy of rainfall-runoff predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chih-Chiang Wei & Nien-Sheng Hsu & Chien-Lin Huang, 2016. "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction Using Dynamic Typhoon Information and Surface Weather Characteristic Considering Monsoon Effects," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 877-895, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-015-1196-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1196-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2017. "Nearshore Wave Predictions Using Data Mining Techniques during Typhoons: A Case Study near Taiwan’s Northeastern Coast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2020. "Real-time Extreme Rainfall Evaluation System for the Construction Industry Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2787-2805, July.

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