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Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model

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  • Ching, Jianye
  • Leu, Sou-Sen

Abstract

This paper considers a difficult but practical circumstance of civil infrastructure management—deterioration/failure data of the infrastructure system are absent while only condition-state data of its components are available. The goal is to develop a framework for estimating time-varying reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities under such a circumstance. A novel method of analyzing time-varying condition-state data that only reports operational/non-operational status of the components is proposed to update the reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities. The proposed method assumes that the degradation arrivals can be modeled as a Poisson process with unknown time-varying arrival rate and damage impact and that the target system can be represented as a fault-tree model. To accommodate large uncertainties, a Bayesian algorithm is proposed, and the reliability of the infrastructure system can be quickly updated based on the condition-state data. Use of the new method is demonstrated with a real-world example of hydraulic spillway gate system.

Suggested Citation

  • Ching, Jianye & Leu, Sou-Sen, 2009. "Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(12), pages 1962-1974.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:12:p:1962-1974
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.07.002
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    1. Suo, Qinghui & Stewart, Mark G., 2009. "Corrosion cracking prediction updating of deteriorating RC structures using inspection information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(8), pages 1340-1348.
    2. Stewart, Mark G. & Al-Harthy, Ali, 2008. "Pitting corrosion and structural reliability of corroding RC structures: Experimental data and probabilistic analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 373-382.
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    9. Yılmaz, Emre & German, Brian J. & Pritchett, Amy R., 2023. "Optimizing resource allocations to improve system reliability via the propagation of statistical moments through fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    10. Morteza Babaei & Abbas Roozbahani & S. Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, 2018. "Risk Assessment of Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 4079-4101, September.

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