IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v31y2017i12d10.1007_s11269-017-1715-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

L-Moment-Based Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Extreme Precipitation and its Uncertainty Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yuyin Liang

    (Tongji University)

  • Shuguang Liu

    (Tongji University)

  • Yiping Guo

    (McMaster University)

  • Hong Hua

    (Tongji University)

Abstract

Estimation of precipitation amounts associated with different return periods is an important task for the planning and design of many types of infrastructures. In this study, regional frequency analysis based on L-moments is proposed to estimate the annual maximum daily precipitation quantiles in the Taihu basin, China. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is used to describe the frequency distributions of extreme rainfall events. At-site frequency analysis results based on L-moments are compared with those obtained from regional analysis. The 95% confidence intervals of estimated precipitation quantiles are calculated using Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). Uncertainty assessment results indicate that regional analysis is more robust and more accurate than at-site analysis. Furthermore, when conducting regional frequency analysis, the estimation of precipitation quantile confidence intervals can be simplified by assuming normality for the MCS results. The variation of the precipitation quantiles’ sample statistics for different return periods is expressed as a function of the return period. The proposed methods are useful for the Taihu Basin and are recommended for other regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuyin Liang & Shuguang Liu & Yiping Guo & Hong Hua, 2017. "L-Moment-Based Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Extreme Precipitation and its Uncertainty Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3899-3919, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1715-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1715-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-017-1715-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-017-1715-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xuesong Zhang & Kaiguang Zhao, 2012. "Bayesian Neural Networks for Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrologic Modeling: A Comparison of Two Schemes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2365-2382, June.
    2. Javad Abolverdi & Davar Khalili, 2010. "Development of Regional Rainfall Annual Maxima for Southwestern Iran by L-Moments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(11), pages 2501-2526, September.
    3. Zamir Hussain, 2011. "Application of the Regional Flood Frequency Analysis to the Upper and Lower Basins of the Indus River, Pakistan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(11), pages 2797-2822, September.
    4. R. Vázquez & K. Beven & J. Feyen, 2009. "GLUE Based Assessment on the Overall Predictions of a MIKE SHE Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(7), pages 1325-1349, May.
    5. Abhijit Bhuyan & Munindra Borah & Rakesh Kumar, 2010. "Regional Flood Frequency Analysis of North-Bank of the River Brahmaputra by Using LH-Moments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(9), pages 1779-1790, July.
    6. João Santos & Maria Portela & Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo, 2011. "Regional Frequency Analysis of Droughts in Portugal," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3537-3558, November.
    7. Xi Chen & Tao Yang & Xiaoyan Wang & Chong-Yu Xu & Zhongbo Yu, 2013. "Uncertainty Intercomparison of Different Hydrological Models in Simulating Extreme Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1393-1409, March.
    8. Wei Zhang & Tian Li, 2015. "The Influence of Objective Function and Acceptability Threshold on Uncertainty Assessment of an Urban Drainage Hydraulic Model with Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation Methodology," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2059-2072, April.
    9. Reza Modarres, 2010. "Regional Dry Spells Frequency Analysis by L-Moment and Multivariate Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(10), pages 2365-2380, August.
    10. Betül Saf, 2009. "Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Using L-Moments for the West Mediterranean Region of Turkey," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 531-551, February.
    11. Jian Sha & Zeli Li & Dennis Swaney & Bongghi Hong & Wei Wang & Yuqiu Wang, 2014. "Application of a Bayesian Watershed Model Linking Multivariate Statistical Analysis to Support Watershed-Scale Nitrogen Management in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3681-3695, September.
    12. Zahrahtul Zakaria & Ani Shabri & Ummi Ahmad, 2012. "Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfalls in the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia using Partial L-Moments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4417-4433, December.
    13. Zamir Hussain & G. Pasha, 2009. "Regional Flood Frequency Analysis of the Seven Sites of Punjab, Pakistan, Using L-Moments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(10), pages 1917-1933, August.
    14. Andres Ticlavilca & Mac McKee, 2011. "Multivariate Bayesian Regression Approach to Forecast Releases from a System of Multiple Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 523-543, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qianyu Gao & Guofang Li & Jin Bao & Jian Wang, 2021. "Regional Frequency Analysis Based on Precipitation Regionalization Accounting for Temporal Variability and a Nonstationary Index Flood Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4435-4456, October.
    2. Samiran Das, 2020. "Assessing the Regional Concept with Sub-Sampling Approach to Identify Probability Distribution for at-Site Hydrological Frequency Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 803-817, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Ayuso-Muñoz & A. García-Marín & P. Ayuso-Ruiz & J. Estévez & R. Pizarro-Tapia & E. Taguas, 2015. "A More Efficient Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationship by Using an “at-site” Regional Frequency Analysis: Application at Mediterranean Climate Locations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3243-3263, July.
    2. Hairong Zhang & Jianzhong Zhou & Lei Ye & Xiaofan Zeng & Yufan Chen, 2015. "Lower Upper Bound Estimation Method Considering Symmetry for Construction of Prediction Intervals in Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5505-5519, December.
    3. Mohamad Najib Ibrahim, 2022. "Assessment of the Uncertainty Associated with Statistical Modeling of Precipitation Extremes for Hydrologic Engineering Applications in Amman, Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Carlos Llopis-Albert & José Merigó & Daniel Palacios-Marqués, 2015. "Structure Adaptation in Stochastic Inverse Methods for Integrating Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(1), pages 95-107, January.
    5. Andrea Gioia & Maria Francesca Bruno & Vincenzo Totaro & Vito Iacobellis, 2020. "Parametric Assessment of Trend Test Power in a Changing Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.
    7. Neslihan Seckin & Murat Cobaner & Recep Yurtal & Tefaruk Haktanir, 2013. "Comparison of Artificial Neural Network Methods with L-moments for Estimating Flood Flow at Ungauged Sites: the Case of East Mediterranean River Basin, Turkey," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2103-2124, May.
    8. Zahrahtul Zakaria & Ani Shabri & Ummi Ahmad, 2012. "Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfalls in the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia using Partial L-Moments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4417-4433, December.
    9. Zamir Hussain, 2017. "Estimation of flood quantiles at gauged and ungauged sites of the four major rivers of Punjab, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 107-123, March.
    10. Pezhman Allahbakhshian-Farsani & Mehdi Vafakhah & Hadi Khosravi-Farsani & Elke Hertig, 2020. "Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Through Some Machine Learning Models in Semi-arid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2887-2909, July.
    11. Myoung-Jin Um & Hyeseon Yun & Woncheol Cho & Jun-Haeng Heo, 2010. "Analysis of Orographic Precipitation on Jeju-Island Using Regional Frequency Analysis and Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(7), pages 1461-1487, May.
    12. Srimanta Ghosh & K. Srinivasan, 2016. "Analysis of Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Regional Frequency of Droughts in the Southern Peninsula of India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(11), pages 3879-3898, September.
    13. Khaled Haddad & Ataur Rahman, 2014. "Derivation of short-duration design rainfalls using daily rainfall statistics," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1391-1401, December.
    14. Mohammad Ghadami & Tayeb Raziei & Mohsen Amini & Reza Modarres, 2020. "Regionalization of drought severity–duration index across Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2813-2827, September.
    15. Zamir Hussain, 2011. "Application of the Regional Flood Frequency Analysis to the Upper and Lower Basins of the Indus River, Pakistan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(11), pages 2797-2822, September.
    16. José Sena & Leandro Beser de Deus & Marcos Freitas & Lazaro Costa, 2012. "Extreme Events of Droughts and Floods in Amazonia: 2005 and 2009," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1665-1676, April.
    17. James Charalambous & Ataur Rahman & Don Carroll, 2013. "Application of Monte Carlo Simulation Technique to Design Flood Estimation: A Case Study for North Johnstone River in Queensland, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4099-4111, September.
    18. Lu Zhuo & Dawei Han & Qiang Dai & Tanvir Islam & Prashant Srivastava, 2015. "Appraisal of NLDAS-2 Multi-Model Simulated Soil Moistures for Hydrological Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3503-3517, August.
    19. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    20. Ayşegül Kuzucu & Gülay Onuşluel Gül, 2023. "Analysis of Drought Dynamics over Annual Maximum Drought Severity Series Based on Daily Index Definitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1421-1436, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1715-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.