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Regionalization of drought severity–duration index across Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Ghadami

    (Isfahan University of Technology)

  • Tayeb Raziei

    (Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO))

  • Mohsen Amini

    (Isfahan University of Technology)

  • Reza Modarres

    (Isfahan University of Technology)

Abstract

Drought is the most important threat to both environmental and socio-economic features of the arid and semi-arid regions of the world as it is closely associated with agricultural production losses, water supply shortage, and security. This study aims to regionalize extreme drought severity–duration (SD) index probability across Iran. The 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series were calculated for the studied stations and subsequently used to compute the annual extreme SD index. Applying a cluster analysis (CA) to the stations, SD index, the studied area was classified into four regions and their homogeneity was tested by the L-moment approach. Results indicated that the regions identified are homogeneous. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram the 2-parameter log-normal distribution was selected as the regional statistical distribution for all regions identified, by which the regional drought SD associated with different return periods was estimated. The spatial pattern of computed drought SD indicates that the eastern, northwestern and western parts of the country are exposed to very high drought severity in all return periods. As the return period is increasing, very high and severe droughts dominate larger areas, so that, for long return periods, approximately all the country would turn towards extreme and severe drought events even across regions possessing high annual precipitation amount.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Ghadami & Tayeb Raziei & Mohsen Amini & Reza Modarres, 2020. "Regionalization of drought severity–duration index across Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2813-2827, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04103-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04103-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
    2. Tayeb Raziei & Isabella Bordi & Luis Pereira, 2011. "An Application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR Datasets for Drought Variability Analysis in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1075-1086, March.
    3. Tayeb Raziei & Bahram Saghafian & Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira & Isabella Bordi, 2009. "Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Western Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 439-455, February.
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    6. Reza Modarres, 2010. "Regional Dry Spells Frequency Analysis by L-Moment and Multivariate Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(10), pages 2365-2380, August.
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    Cited by:

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