IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v28y2014i9p2539-2562.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Equidistance Quantile Matching Method for Updating IDFCurves under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Roshan Srivastav
  • Andre Schardong
  • Slobodan Simonovic

Abstract

Recent increase in intensity and frequency of catastrophic hydrologic events is shown to be a major threat to the global economy. These major events have been strongly linked to climate change and are expected to become worse in the future. The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves quantify the extreme precipitations which are commonly used in planning and design of hydraulic structures. Since it is expected that the trends in extreme precipitation events will alter in the future, this will impact the IDF curves and they will have to be updated. In this study we present a methodology based on equidistance quantile matching (EQM) for updating the IDF curves under climate change. The two main steps in the proposed methodology are: (i) spatial downscaling of the maximum daily precipitation values from the global climate model/s (GCM) data to each of the sub-daily maximums observed at a station under consideration; (ii) explicit description of the changes in the GCM data between the baseline period and the future period (temporal downscaling). The main advantage of the proposed method compared to the existing methods which only use the spatial downscaling/disaggregation methods at baseline period, is that the proposed methodology additionally incorporates the changes in the distributional characteristics of the GCM model between the baseline period and the projection period. In addition, the method is simple to adopt and computationally efficient. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed methodology we use: (i) Canadian GCM model CanESM2 and (ii) its Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for the description of future conditions. The sub-daily annual maximum intensities are obtained for four stations in Canada located at London (Ontario), Hamilton (Ontario), Calgary (Alberta) and Vancouver (British Columbia). It is observed that the proposed approach is skillful in capturing and replicating the historical intensities and frequencies. The results indicated that for all RCP simulations considered in this study there is increase in precipitation intensities for all return periods. The relative increase in precipitation extremes is consistent with the RCP scenarios, i.e., the intensity of RCP-26 is lower than the RCP-45 which in-turn is lower than RCP-85. The quantile-based modeling without the temporal downscaling consistently underestimates the precipitation intensity when compared to the proposed method. The proposed method offers a valuable contribution to water resources planning and management of future extreme conditions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Roshan Srivastav & Andre Schardong & Slobodan Simonovic, 2014. "Equidistance Quantile Matching Method for Updating IDFCurves under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2539-2562, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:9:p:2539-2562
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0626-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-014-0626-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-014-0626-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fahad Alzahrani & Ousmane Seidou & Abdullah Alodah, 2022. "Assessment and Improvement of IDF Generation Algorithms Used in the IDF_CC Tool," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4591-4606, September.
    2. Qin, Shanshan & Wu, Yuehua, 2020. "General matching quantiles M-estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Ronit Singh & D. S. Arya & A. K. Taxak & Z. Vojinovic, 2016. "Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves in Roorkee, India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4603-4616, October.
    4. Subhra Sekhar Maity & Rajib Maity, 2022. "Changing Pattern of Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationship of Precipitation due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5371-5399, November.
    5. M. T. Vu & V. S. Raghavan & S.-Y. Liong, 2017. "Deriving short-duration rainfall IDF curves from a regional climate model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1877-1891, February.
    6. Ioannis M. Kourtis & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Basil Ε. Psiloglou & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2403-2428, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.
    2. Gloria Buriticá & Philippe Naveau, 2023. "Stable sums to infer high return levels of multivariate rainfall time series," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), June.
    3. Conrad Wasko & Rory Nathan, 2019. "The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 105-120, September.
    4. Mark D. Risser & William D. Collins & Michael F. Wehner & Travis A. O’Brien & Huanping Huang & Paul A. Ullrich, 2024. "Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Hong Ying & Hongyan Zhang & Ying Sun & Jianjun Zhao & Zhengxiang Zhang & Xiaoyi Guo & Hang Zhao & Rihan Wu & Guorong Deng, 2020. "CMIP5-Based Spatiotemporal Changes of Extreme Temperature Events during 2021–2100 in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Claudia Tebaldi & Michael F. Wehner, 2018. "Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 349-361, February.
    7. Luminda Niroshana Gunawardhana & Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Ghadeer Al-Hadhrami, 2018. "Quantification of the changes in intensity and frequency of hourly extreme rainfall attributed climate change in Oman," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1649-1664, July.
    8. Victor Ongoma & Haishan Chen & Chujie Gao & Aston Matwai Nyongesa & Francis Polong, 2018. "Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 901-920, January.
    9. Gareth J. Marshall & Kirsti Jylhä & Sonja Kivinen & Mikko Laapas & Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, 2020. "The role of atmospheric circulation patterns in driving recent changes in indices of extreme seasonal precipitation across Arctic Fennoscandia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 741-759, September.
    10. Wenhui Liu & Jidong Wu & Rumei Tang & Mengqi Ye & Jing Yang, 2020. "Daily Precipitation Threshold for Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in the Mainland of China: An Economic Loss Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.
    11. Yong Yuan & Denghua Yan & Zhe Yuan & Jun Yin & Zhongnan Zhao, 2019. "Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin between 1961 to 2016, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-11, September.
    12. Jeanne Thibeault & Anji Seth, 2014. "Changing climate extremes in the Northeast United States: observations and projections from CMIP5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 273-287, November.
    13. Hefei Huang & Huijuan Cui & Quansheng Ge, 2021. "Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 2059-2079, September.
    14. Giovanni Forzieri & Luc Feyen & Simone Russo & Michalis Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Alfieri & Stephen Outten & Mirco Migliavacca & Alessandra Bianchi & Rodrigo Rojas & Alba Cid, 2016. "Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 105-119, July.
    15. Bryan Jones & Claudia Tebaldi & Brian C. O’Neill & Keith Oleson & Jing Gao, 2018. "Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 423-437, February.
    16. Yves Tramblay & Samuel Somot, 2018. "Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 289-302, November.
    17. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini, 2017. "Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 249-257, November.
    18. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini & Michael Wehner, 2019. "Contrasting the responses of extreme precipitation to changes in surface air and dew point temperatures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 257-271, May.
    19. Meng Zhang & Haipeng Yu & Andrew D. King & Yun Wei & Jianping Huang & Yu Ren, 2020. "Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits over East-Central Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 603-619, September.
    20. Dominik Traxl & Niklas Boers & Aljoscha Rheinwalt & Bodo Bookhagen, 2021. "The role of cyclonic activity in tropical temperature-rainfall scaling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:9:p:2539-2562. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.