IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v37y2023i6d10.1007_s11269-022-03252-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins

Author

Listed:
  • Ioannis M. Kourtis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Ioannis Nalbantis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • George Tsakiris

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Basil Ε. Psiloglou

    (National Observatory of Athens)

  • Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

Abstract

The main aims of the present work were to: develop sub-hourly Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves considering future climate projections and predict the impact of climate change on rainfall induced runoff in an urban drainage network. The application was undertaken using hourly measured rainfall data from one station. Because data for sub-hourly rainfall durations were not available for the examined station, a relationship between hourly and sub-hourly rainfall depths was established by employing the scale-invariance theory and using 5-min and 10-min measured rainfall data from two nearby stations. IDF curves were developed based on 1-h annual maxima series, using both the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Gumbel distributions. Prior to the development of the IDF curves, a trend analysis was conducted. Climate change impact on the urban drainage network was assessed based on future IDF curves by employing the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for all hydrologic-hydraulic simulations. It was shown that the statistical properties of annual maxima series present a simple scaling property over time scales ranging from 5 min to 1 h. This allowed the development of IDF curves based on 5-min (scaled) annual maxima series using GEV distribution. The results revealed that by year 2100, rainfall intensities of 1-h duration are projected to increase under the mean climate scenario for all return periods examined. Finally, the predicted urban runoff presented significant variability depending on the studied future climate scenario. Peak discharge at the outlet of the urban drainage network ranged from 4.9 m3/s to 8.3 m3/s. With respect to the current situation, the percent change for peak discharge was estimated at -9%, 47% and 69% for the lower, mean and upper climate change scenarios, respectively. In addition, the surface runoff ranged from 22.2 mm to 73.8 mm, according to the examined scenario, with percent difference estimated at 0.02%, 86% and 232% for lower, mean and upper climate change scenarios, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis M. Kourtis & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Basil Ε. Psiloglou & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2403-2428, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03252-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03252-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-022-03252-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-022-03252-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Roudier & Jafet C. M. Andersson & Chantal Donnelly & Luc Feyen & Wouter Greuell & Fulco Ludwig, 2016. "Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 341-355, March.
    2. Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2017. "Bringing Future Climatic Change into Water Resources Management Practice Today," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2933-2950, August.
    3. Jan Adamowski & Kaz Adamowski & John Bougadis, 2010. "Influence of Trend on Short Duration Design Storms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(3), pages 401-413, February.
    4. Roshan Srivastav & Andre Schardong & Slobodan Simonovic, 2014. "Equidistance Quantile Matching Method for Updating IDFCurves under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2539-2562, July.
    5. Philippe Roudier & Jafet Andersson & Chantal Donnelly & Luc Feyen & Wouter Greuell & Fulco Ludwig, 2016. "Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 341-355, March.
    6. Muhammad Saiful Adham Shukor & Zulkifli Yusop & Fadhillah Yusof & Zulfaqar Sa’adi & Nor Eliza Alias, 2020. "Detecting Rainfall Trend and Development of Future Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curve for the State of Kelantan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(10), pages 3165-3182, August.
    7. Demetris Koutsoyiannis & George Baloutsos, 2000. "Analysis of a Long Record of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Athens, Greece, and Design Rainfall Inferences," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 22(1), pages 29-48, July.
    8. Panagiota Galiatsatou & Christos Iliadis, 2022. "Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves at Ungauged Sites in a Changing Climate for Sustainable Stormwater Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    10. J. Ayuso-Muñoz & A. García-Marín & P. Ayuso-Ruiz & J. Estévez & R. Pizarro-Tapia & E. Taguas, 2015. "A More Efficient Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationship by Using an “at-site” Regional Frequency Analysis: Application at Mediterranean Climate Locations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3243-3263, July.
    11. V. Agilan & N. V. Umamahesh, 2017. "Non-Stationary Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationship: a Comparison between Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1825-1841, April.
    12. Myeong-Ho Yeo & Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen & Yong Sang Kim & Theodore A. Kpodonu, 2022. "An Integrated Extreme Rainfall Modeling Tool (SDExtreme) for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 3153-3179, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fahad Alzahrani & Ousmane Seidou & Abdullah Alodah, 2022. "Assessment and Improvement of IDF Generation Algorithms Used in the IDF_CC Tool," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4591-4606, September.
    2. Myoung-Jin Um & Jun-Haeng Heo & Momcilo Markus & Donald J. Wuebbles, 2018. "Performance Evaluation of four Statistical Tests for Trend and Non-stationarity and Assessment of Observed and Projected Annual Maximum Precipitation Series in Major United States Cities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 913-933, February.
    3. Alison Kay, 2022. "Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Subhra Sekhar Maity & Rajib Maity, 2022. "Changing Pattern of Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationship of Precipitation due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5371-5399, November.
    5. Joanna Nowak Da Costa & Beata Calka & Elzbieta Bielecka, 2021. "Urban Population Flood Impact Applied to a Warsaw Scenario," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Ioannis Kougkoulos & Myriam Merad & Simon J. Cook & Ioannis Andredakis, 2021. "Floods in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and lessons for French flood risk governance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1959-1980, November.
    7. Thibault Lemaitre-Basset & Ludovic Oudin & Guillaume Thirel, 2022. "Evapotranspiration in hydrological models under rising CO2: a jump into the unknown," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    8. A. L. Kay & V. A. Bell & B. P. Guillod & R. G. Jones & A. C. Rudd, 2018. "National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 585-599, April.
    9. Edwar Forero-Ortiz & Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz & Robert Monjo, 2020. "Climate Change Implications for Water Availability: A Case Study of Barcelona City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-15, February.
    10. Alison C. Rudd & A. L. Kay & V. A. Bell, 2019. "National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 323-340, October.
    11. Nina Knittel & Martin W. Jury & Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Gabriel Bachner & Andrea K. Steiner, 2020. "A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 251-269, May.
    12. Jan Gaska, 2023. "Losses from Fluvial Floods in Poland over the 21st Century – Estimation Using the Productivity Costs Method," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 357-383, November.
    13. Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    14. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    15. George Tsakiris, 2017. "Facets of Modern Water Resources Management: Prolegomena," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2899-2904, August.
    16. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    17. Lan-Fen Chu & Michael McAleer & Szu-Hua Wang, 2012. "Statistical Modelling of Recent Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-004/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Peng Jiang & Zhongbo Yu & Mahesh R. Gautam & Kumud Acharya, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4807-4821, October.
    19. Wan-Jiun Chen, 2017. "Is the Green Solow Model Valid for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions in the European Union?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 23-45, May.
    20. Jonas Smit Andersen & Sara Maria Lerer & Antje Backhaus & Marina Bergen Jensen & Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, 2017. "Characteristic Rain Events: A Methodology for Improving the Amenity Value of Stormwater Control Measures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03252-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.