IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v154y2019i1d10.1007_s10584-019-02415-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contrasting the responses of extreme precipitation to changes in surface air and dew point temperatures

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Zhang

    (The University of Iowa)

  • Gabriele Villarini

    (The University of Iowa)

  • Michael Wehner

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

Abstract

The Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship is a thermodynamic relationship between saturation vapor pressure and temperature. Based on the C–C relationship, the scaling of extreme precipitation with respect to surface air temperature (i.e., extreme precipitation scaling) has been widely believed to quantify the sensitivity of these extremes to global surface warming under climate change. However, the extreme precipitation scaling rate in the observations produces counter-intuitive results, particularly in the tropics (i.e., strong negative scaling in the tropical land) possibly associated with limitations in moisture availability under the high-temperature bands. The trends in extreme precipitation based on station data are mixed with decreases in most of the tropics and subtropics and increases in most of the USA, western Europe, Australia, and a large portion of Asia. To try to reconcile these results, we examine the extreme precipitation scaling using dew point temperature and extreme precipitation and compare these results with those obtained from surface air temperature and extreme precipitation using station-based data, reanalysis data, and climate model simulations. We find that this mix of increases and decreases in the trends of extreme precipitation across the planet is more similar to the changes in surface dew point temperature rather than the actual temperature across the station-based data, reanalysis data, and the historical experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). These findings suggest that dew point temperature is a better and more realistic metric for the responses of extreme precipitation to temperature increases. Therefore, the risk of having extreme precipitation is higher than what was obtained using surface air temperature, particularly in the tropics and subtropics (e.g., South Asia), areas of the world characterized by extremely high population density and severe poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini & Michael Wehner, 2019. "Contrasting the responses of extreme precipitation to changes in surface air and dew point temperatures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 257-271, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02415-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02415-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-019-02415-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-019-02415-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seung-Ki Min & Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2011. "Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 378-381, February.
    2. Eduardo Maeda & Nobuyuki Utsumi & Taikan Oki, 2012. "Decreasing precipitation extremes at higher temperatures in tropical regions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 935-941, October.
    3. Geert Lenderink & Hayley J. Fowler, 2017. "Understanding rainfall extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 391-393, June.
    4. Quirin Schiermeier, 2011. "Increased flood risk linked to global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 316-316, February.
    5. Andreas F. Prein & Roy M. Rasmussen & Kyoko Ikeda & Changhai Liu & Martyn P. Clark & Greg J. Holland, 2017. "The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 48-52, January.
    6. Guiling Wang & Dagang Wang & Kevin E. Trenberth & Amir Erfanian & Miao Yu & Michael G. Bosilovich & Dana T. Parr, 2017. "The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 268-274, April.
    7. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini, 2017. "Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 249-257, November.
    8. Jiawei Bao & Steven C. Sherwood & Lisa V. Alexander & Jason P. Evans, 2017. "Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 128-132, February.
    9. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    10. E. M. Fischer & R. Knutti, 2016. "Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 986-991, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhiqi Yang & Gabriele Villarini, 2020. "On the role of increased CO2 concentrations in enhancing the temporal clustering of heavy precipitation events across Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1455-1472, October.
    2. Conrad Wasko & Rory Nathan, 2019. "The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 105-120, September.
    3. Zhiwei Yong & Junnan Xiong & Zegen Wang & Weiming Cheng & Jiawei Yang & Quan Pang, 2021. "Relationship of extreme precipitation, surface air temperature, and dew point temperature across the Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-22, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dominik Traxl & Niklas Boers & Aljoscha Rheinwalt & Bodo Bookhagen, 2021. "The role of cyclonic activity in tropical temperature-rainfall scaling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Zhiwei Yong & Junnan Xiong & Zegen Wang & Weiming Cheng & Jiawei Yang & Quan Pang, 2021. "Relationship of extreme precipitation, surface air temperature, and dew point temperature across the Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini, 2017. "Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 249-257, November.
    4. M. A. Ben Alaya & F. W. Zwiers & X. Zhang, 2020. "Probable maximum precipitation in a warming climate over North America in CanRCM4 and CRCM5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 611-629, February.
    5. Jang Hyun Sung & Minsung Kwon & Jong-June Jeon & Seung Beom Seo, 2019. "A Projection of Extreme Precipitation Based on a Selection of CMIP5 GCMs over North Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, April.
    6. Lei Gu & Jiabo Yin & Pierre Gentine & Hui-Min Wang & Louise J. Slater & Sylvia C. Sullivan & Jie Chen & Jakob Zscheischler & Shenglian Guo, 2023. "Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Conrad Wasko & Rory Nathan, 2019. "The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 105-120, September.
    8. Mark D. Risser & William D. Collins & Michael F. Wehner & Travis A. O’Brien & Huanping Huang & Paul A. Ullrich, 2024. "Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Salvador Gil-Guirado & José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez & María Rosario Prieto, 2016. "Can we learn from the past? Four hundred years of changes in adaptation to floods and droughts. Measuring the vulnerability in two Hispanic cities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 183-200, November.
    10. Zhiqi Yang & Gabriele Villarini, 2020. "On the role of increased CO2 concentrations in enhancing the temporal clustering of heavy precipitation events across Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1455-1472, October.
    11. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Precipitation on Food Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9961, CESifo.
    12. Haoyang Du & Chen Zhou & Haoqing Tang & Xiaolong Jin & Dengshuai Chen & Penghui Jiang & Manchun Li, 2021. "Simulation and estimation of future precipitation changes in arid regions: a case study of Xinjiang, Northwest China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.
    13. Islam, Moinul & Kotani, Koji & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Climate perception and flood mitigation cooperation: A Bangladesh case study," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 117-133.
    14. Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh & Pankaj Kumar, 2014. "Assessing future changes in seasonal climatic extremes in the Ganges river basin using an ensemble of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 273-286, March.
    15. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    16. Yanzhao Li & Xiang Qin & Zizhen Jin & Yushuo Liu, 2023. "Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Qilian Mountains under Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-28, March.
    17. Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.
    18. Brennan, Timothy J., 2011. "Energy Efficiency Policy: Surveying the Puzzles," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-27, Resources for the Future.
    19. Getachew Tegegne & Assefa M. Melesse, 2020. "Multimodel Ensemble Projection of Hydro-climatic Extremes for Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 3019-3035, July.
    20. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02415-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.