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Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean

Author

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  • Yves Tramblay

    (HSM (Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD))

  • Samuel Somot

    (CNRM (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS))

Abstract

Mediterranean basins can be impacted by severe floods caused by extreme rainfall, and there is a growing awareness about the possible increase in these heavy rainfall events due to climate change. In this study, the climate change impacts on extreme daily precipitation in 102 catchments covering the whole Mediterranean basin are investigated using nonstationary extreme value model applied to annual maximum precipitation in an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Euro-CORDEX experiment. Results indicate contrasted trends, with significant increasing trends in Northern catchments and conversely decreasing trends in Southern catchments. For most cases, the time of signal emergence for these trends is before the year 2000. The same spatial pattern is obtained under the two climate scenarios considered (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and in most RCM simulations, suggesting a robust climate change signal. The strongest multi-model agreement concerns the positive trends, which can exceed + 20% by the end of the twenty-first century in some simulations, impacting South France, North Italy, and the Balkans. For these areas, society-relevant strong impacts of such Mediterranean extreme precipitation changes could be expected in particular concerning flood-related damages.

Suggested Citation

  • Yves Tramblay & Samuel Somot, 2018. "Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 289-302, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:151:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2300-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy Ivancic & Stephen Shaw, 2015. "Examining why trends in very heavy precipitation should not be mistaken for trends in very high river discharge," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 681-693, December.
    2. Yves Tramblay & Lionel Jarlan & Lahoucine Hanich & Samuel Somot, 2018. "Future Scenarios of Surface Water Resources Availability in North African Dams," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1291-1306, March.
    3. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marie-Noëlle WOILLEZ, 2019. "Revue de littérature sur le changement climatique au Maroc : observations, projections et impacts," Working Paper 7ae2aa2d-befc-471b-94be-9, Agence française de développement.
    3. Titouan Le Vot & Marianne Cohen & Maciej Nowak & Paul Passy & Franck Sumera, 2024. "Resilience of Terraced Landscapes to Human and Natural Impacts: A GIS-Based Reconstruction of Land Use Evolution in a Mediterranean Mountain Valley," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Leonardo V. Noto & Giuseppe Cipolla & Antonio Francipane & Dario Pumo, 2023. "Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2287-2305, May.
    5. Ramón Egea Pérez & Mónica Cortés-Molina & Francisco J. Navarro-González, 2021. "Analysis of Rainfall Time Series with Application to Calculation of Return Periods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-18, July.

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