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Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Forzieri

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Climate Risk Management Unit)

  • Luc Feyen

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Climate Risk Management Unit)

  • Simone Russo

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Econometrics and Applied Statistics Unit)

  • Michalis Vousdoukas

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Climate Risk Management Unit
    University of the Aegean, University hill)

  • Lorenzo Alfieri

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Climate Risk Management Unit)

  • Stephen Outten

    (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center)

  • Mirco Migliavacca

    (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)

  • Alessandra Bianchi

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Climate Risk Management Unit)

  • Rodrigo Rojas

    (CSIRO, Land and Water)

  • Alba Cid

    (Universidad de Cantabria)

Abstract

While reported losses of climate-related hazards are at historically high levels, climate change is likely to enhance the risk posed by extreme weather events. Several regions are likely to be exposed to multiple climate hazards, yet their modeling in a joint scheme is still at the early stages. A multi-hazard framework to map exposure to multiple climate extremes in Europe along the twenty-first century is hereby presented. Using an ensemble of climate projections, changes in the frequency of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, streamflow droughts, wildfires and windstorms are evaluated. Corresponding variations in expected annual exposure allow for a quantitative comparison of hazards described by different process characteristics and metrics. Projected changes in exposure depict important variations in hazard scenarios, especially those linked to rising temperatures, and spatial patterns largely modulated by local climate conditions. Results show that Europe will likely face a progressive increase in overall climate hazard with a prominent spatial gradient towards south-western regions mainly driven by the rise of heat waves, droughts and wildfires. Key hotspots emerge particularly along coastlines and in floodplains, often highly populated and economically pivotal, where floods and windstorms could be critical in combination with other climate hazards. Projected increases in exposure will be larger for very extreme events due to their pronounced changes in frequency. Results of this appraisal provide useful input for forthcoming European disaster risk and adaptation policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Forzieri & Luc Feyen & Simone Russo & Michalis Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Alfieri & Stephen Outten & Mirco Migliavacca & Alessandra Bianchi & Rodrigo Rojas & Alba Cid, 2016. "Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 105-119, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:137:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1661-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1661-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Alexander S. Little & Matthew D. K. Priestley & Jennifer L. Catto, 2023. "Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. George Halkos & Antonis Skouloudis & Chrisovaladis Malesios & Konstantinos Evangelinos, 2018. "Bouncing Back from Extreme Weather Events: Some Preliminary Findings on Resilience Barriers Facing Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 547-559, May.
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    11. Meilutytė-Lukauskienė D. & Akstinas V. & Vaitulionytė M. & Tomkevičienė A., 2022. "Behaviour of the 2010 flood in Lithuania: management and socio-economic risks," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-29, March.
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